FORECASTS

EVIDENCE-BACKED PROBABILITIES ON THE QUESTIONS SHAPING BUSINESS, POLICY, AND SOCIETY.

2024-12-07The Forecasting Machine

Assad’s last weekend: Hypermind’s 91.1% forecast before the fall

A chart shared on 7 December 2024 gave Assad a 91.1% chance of losing power before 2026. His government fell the following day.

2024-11-02The Forecasting Machine

Voter enthusiasm was not a win probability: Harris in 2024

Gallup found a Democratic enthusiasm lead in late October 2024. Servan-Schreiber saw it as good news for Harris, but the measure did not predict her chance of winning.

2024-08-21The Forecasting Machine

The other candidate: what Hypermind’s 2024 Matignon market missed

Hypermind’s crowd favoured an unnamed successor to Gabriel Attal in August 2024. Michel Barnier, already listed at low odds, was appointed on 5 September.

2024-07-25The Forecasting Machine

Shapiro led Hypermind’s July 2024 running-mate forecast; Harris chose Walz

On 25 July 2024, Josh Shapiro led Hypermind’s forecast of the Democratic vice-presidential nominee. The recovered chart put him below 50% and left an unnamed category that included the eventual selection.

2023-12-13The Forecasting Machine

Wagner, territory and presidential tenure: three Hypermind questions in 2023

At 09:20 GMT on 24 June 2023, Hypermind gave Putin a 60% chance of remaining president through year-end. A December update asked a different question about which wartime leader would lose power first.

2023-02-24The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s Ukraine war forecasts, 2022–2023: what the crowd got right and wrong

On the war’s first anniversary, Émile Servan-Schreiber published Hypermind’s forecasts for its second year. A look back at the crowd’s record since January 2022: an invasion it rated as possible but not likely, a serious early misjudgment about Zelensky, and a run of calls that held up.

2022-07-06The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind gave Boris Johnson a 92% chance of losing his job in 2022

A recovered July 2022 chart turns an informal warning into a dated probability with a calendar-year horizon. Johnson announced his resignation the next day but remained prime minister until September.

2022-06-11The Forecasting Machine

Mélenchon at 3%, a presidential majority at 76.2%: Hypermind before the 2022 legislative election

Hypermind’s 11 June 2022 graphic gave Mélenchon a 3% chance of becoming prime minister before Bastille Day. Its companion government forecast was less successful.

2022-04-23The Forecasting Machine

Before the run-off: Hypermind tracks Zemmour, Pécresse and the changing 2022 field

Hypermind’s 2021–2022 updates record a volatile contest behind Macron. Recovered charts show why presidential victory, run-off qualification and conditional chances cannot be read as interchangeable numbers.

2022-04-02The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s eve-of-election Orbán forecast in 2022

On 2 April 2022, Servan-Schreiber reported four-in-five odds for Orbán; the attached Hypermind chart showed 81.9%. Fidesz–KDNP then won 135 seats.

2021-09-12The Forecasting Machine

Nuclear energy in the EU taxonomy: Hypermind’s September 2021 snapshot

On 12 September 2021, a Hypermind card gave nuclear inclusion in the EU’s green taxonomy that year a 30.0% chance. The later policy milestones fell in 2022 and 2023.

2021-09-11The Forecasting Machine

Morocco 2021: what survives of Hypermind’s forecast that the PJD would lose power

Hypermind said its market anticipated the PJD’s loss of power months ahead. The surviving chart clarifies the question, but its final 100% price is a retrospective snapshot rather than a pre-election forecast.