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2016-06-01The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s 2016: ahead of the betting markets on Trump’s nomination, then one chance in four for Brexit and the White House

Hypermind scored its 2016 Republican nomination forecasts 35–40% better than Betfair, PredictIt and the Iowa Electronic Markets. Months later it gave Brexit and a Trump presidency about one chance in four. What a year of hits and misses says about probabilities.

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