Quantify Strategic Uncertainty at AI Speed & Scale
The Forecasting Machine is an AI-powered foresight platform that transforms strategic uncertainty into hard probabilities that are evidence-backed and continuously updated for greater actionability.
Some Recent Forecasts
Requested and published by other users
Testimonials
"« The Forecasting Machine can help conduct horizon scanning at scale and speed which hasn't been possible until now. »
"« The Forecasting Machine is a great tool to convert an avalanche of news into a collection of time series that describes the world in a far more structured way than the original documents. »
Architecture
Smart Forecasting Pipeline
The Forecasting Machine combines event-drivers analysis, real- time multilingual online news gathering, and multi-model collective intelligence to generate richly-documented probability forecasts. They are updated automatically custom schedules, or on demand in response to human feedback.
Question Analysis
Analyzes question context to identify key drivers and information needs
News Monitoring
Intelligent querying and gathering of relevant news articles
Event Processing
Extracts and processes key events, storing them in a structured database
Multi-model Prompting
Generate independent forecasts using leading models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google.
Reasoned probabilities
Aggregated probabilities with fully-documented rationales
Benefits
A Closer Look
A simple overview comparing our forecasting method with other common approaches.
| Benefit | The Forecasting Machine® | Simple LLM | Super/Crowd Forecasting | Model-Based Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Universal Forecast anything, at any time horizon. | Requires experts in every domain and short time horizons | Requires lots of historical data and a separate model for each type forecast | ||
Timely Instant forecasts at AI speed, automatically updated | Requires full prompts and manual updates | Each forecast requires days of research | ||
Documented Easy access to forecast reasoning and sources | Optional | Reasoning and sources, if provided, require synthesis | ||
Scalable Unlimited number of forecasts organized in a rich dashboard | No built-in dashboard | Severely constrained by human cognitive limits | No built-in dashboard | |
Aware Real-time global news scan informs latest forecasts | No built-in dashboard, limited news scanning | Severely constrained by human cognitive limits | Requires custom news scanning and interpretation | |
Interactive Forecast updates respond to human input | Requires new prompts | Depends on participant availability | Not inherently interactive | |
Persistent Retains memory of all past forecasts and events | No persistent memory | Human forecaster turnover results in memory loss | ||
Low Cost Professional quality forecasts for less than a cup of coffee | Expert human forecasting is rare and expensive | Requires costly human model-builder and operator |