FORECASTS

EVIDENCE-BACKED PROBABILITIES ON THE QUESTIONS SHAPING BUSINESS, POLICY, AND SOCIETY.

2017-05-18The Forecasting Machine

From 40.6% to 50.5%: Hypermind’s May 2017 impeachment forecast

Hypermind’s 17 and 18 May 2017 charts priced House impeachment that year at 40.6% and 50.5%. Trump’s first impeachment occurred in 2019, beyond that horizon.

2017-05-08The Forecasting Machine

Two years in one chart: how Hypermind’s market priced the 2017 French presidential race

From Alain Juppé’s long lead to François Fillon’s collapse and Emmanuel Macron’s rise, Hypermind’s prediction market tracked the 2017 French election from July 2015. Marine Le Pen never rose much above 15%, even after Brexit and Trump.

2017-05-04The Forecasting Machine

Vote share, victory and qualification: three ways to read Hypermind’s 2017 forecasts

Hypermind’s 4 May 2017 mean forecast of Macron’s vote share was 60.8%. Earlier charts show why that number differs from a probability of victory or qualification.

2017-04-21The Forecasting Machine

What would each French president mean for stocks? Hypermind’s April 2017 conditional forecasts

Before the first round, Hypermind published different distributions for the CAC 40’s 10 May close under Le Pen, Fillon or Macron, and Mélenchon presidencies.

2016-12-06The Forecasting Machine

Before Cazeneuve’s appointment: a 59% Hypermind observation on 5 December 2016

A recovered chart shows the market weighing who would succeed Manuel Valls, with Cazeneuve at 59% late on December 5. The official appointment followed on December 6.

2016-10-09The Forecasting Machine

Why nomination odds differ from election odds: Trump in 2016

Hypermind’s February 2016 chart made Trump the nomination favourite while favouring a Democratic presidency. The two panels illustrate why forecasts need precise targets.

2016-06-01The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s 2016: ahead of the betting markets on Trump’s nomination, then one chance in four for Brexit and the White House

Hypermind scored its 2016 Republican nomination forecasts 35–40% better than Betfair, PredictIt and the Iowa Electronic Markets. Months later it gave Brexit and a Trump presidency about one chance in four. What a year of hits and misses says about probabilities.