FORECASTS

EVIDENCE-BACKED PROBABILITIES ON THE QUESTIONS SHAPING BUSINESS, POLICY, AND SOCIETY.

2020-11-04The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind's 2020 US election forecasts: Biden favored, uncertainty intact

Hypermind kept Biden ahead without calling the race certain, anticipated Harris as his running mate, and assigned a minority probability to the loser refusing to accept defeat before Thanksgiving.

2020-09-03The Forecasting Machine

The Long Fork Project: forecasting the consequences of America’s 2020 election

In 2020, Hypermind asked its champion forecasters what the United States would look like in 2022 and 2024 depending on whether Donald Trump won re-election. One of the questions, on national happiness, can now be checked against what happened.

2020-04-04The Forecasting Machine

From May to September: Hypermind’s school-reopening forecasts during France’s first lockdown

Two spring 2020 snapshots show a sharp change in Hypermind’s expected timing of France’s school reopening. The eventual phased return highlights why resolution criteria matter as much as the date bands.

2020-03-20The Forecasting Machine

Better off after four years? Hypermind’s March 2020 economic questions

Hypermind’s March 2020 dashboard gave an 82% chance of the Dow exceeding its 2016 election-day close and a 70.7% chance of higher unemployment. The two measures could move in different directions.

2020-02-03The Forecasting Machine

Iowa 2020: Sanders at 71%, but what counted as winning?

Hypermind favoured Bernie Sanders at 71% before Iowa’s 2020 caucuses. The archived chart and disputed results show why a forecast needs a clear winning rule.

2020-01-30The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s January 2020 forecast on Isabelle Kocher

Hypermind’s 30 January 2020 snapshot put Isabelle Kocher’s renewal at ENGIE at 21%, before the board announced non-renewal a week later on 6 February.

2020-01-27The Forecasting Machine

Dati in the polls, Griveaux in the market: Paris’s January 2020 race

Hypermind’s Paris mayoral market gave Anne Hidalgo a 55.9% chance of winning on a chart shared on 27 January 2020. Its challenger ranking differed from first-round vote intentions, without creating a like-for-like accuracy test.

2020-01-25The Forecasting Machine

Support for Guaidó, a cautious forecast for Maduro: Hypermind in January 2020

Émile Servan-Schreiber’s January 2020 support for Juan Guaidó coexisted with a much less optimistic Hypermind forecast. The chart asked about Maduro losing power, regardless of who displaced him.

2019-01-16The Forecasting Machine

Brexit before April 2019? Hypermind’s 37% forecast

A January 2019 market snapshot put UK withdrawal before 1 April at 37%. The chart makes the deadline explicit; official records establish the later outcome.

2018-12-11The Forecasting Machine

Macron rebounds in the market: Hypermind’s Yellow Vests forecasts, December 2018

Recovered December 2018 cards distinguish Macron’s popularity forecast from government survival. The rebound was in market odds; the specified Ipsos poll had already been fielded.

2018-11-01The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s November 2018 US midterm forecasts: a split Congress was the favourite

Five days before the 2018 US midterms, Hypermind’s dashboard favoured Republican Senate control and a Democratic House. Both happened; the probabilities deserve context.

2017-05-19The Forecasting Machine

After the presidency: forecasting Macron’s parliamentary majority

In May 2017, Hypermind favoured an absolute legislative majority for La République En Marche. A preserved chart and official results document the forecast and outcome.