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2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine
Will the USA Bomb Iranian Territory in June 2026? A Forecast at 50/50
The Forecasting Machine put the chance of a U.S. bombing operation on Iranian territory near even odds at the start of June, before new evidence sharply changed the assessment.
Forecasts
2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine
When Will the USA Sustain a One-Month Ceasefire With Iran?
The Forecasting Machine initially made Q3 2026 the likeliest window for a full month without U.S. attacks on Iran, then revised the distribution as the ceasefire repeatedly came under pressure.
Forecasts
2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine
Will Global Belief in God Decline by 2100?
The Forecasting Machine gives a significant decline in the global share of people who believe in God a 50% probability by 2100, while demographic resilience keeps stability firmly in play.
Forecasts
2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine
Will Russia Accept a Permanent Ukraine Ceasefire by the End of 2026?
The Forecasting Machine gives Russia only about a 7% chance of accepting a permanent ceasefire by the end of 2026 as active fighting and incompatible terms outweigh mounting pressure for a deal.
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