FORECASTS

EVIDENCE-BACKED PROBABILITIES ON THE QUESTIONS SHAPING BUSINESS, POLICY, AND SOCIETY.

Forecasts

2026-10-23The Forecasting Machine

The Forecasting Machine opens its 2026 U.S. Senate forecasts to the public

Explore The Forecasting Machine’s public Senate election forecasts, with race probabilities, chamber-control estimates and the reasoning behind each question.

2026-08-02The Forecasting Machine

France 2027 on the Hypermind Market: How the Odds Moved Between Summer 2025 and Summer 2026

A year of Hypermind forecasts on the 2027 French presidential election, read as a market snapshot rather than a prediction: the RN’s combined chances rose, the “someone else” option shrank, and Édouard Philippe consolidated his position on the centre-right.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

Will the USA Bomb Iranian Territory in June 2026? A Forecast at 50/50

The Forecasting Machine put the chance of a U.S. bombing operation on Iranian territory near even odds at the start of June, before new evidence sharply changed the assessment.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

When Will the USA Sustain a One-Month Ceasefire With Iran?

The Forecasting Machine initially made Q3 2026 the likeliest window for a full month without U.S. attacks on Iran, then revised the distribution as the ceasefire repeatedly came under pressure.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

Will Global Belief in God Decline by 2100?

The Forecasting Machine gives a significant decline in the global share of people who believe in God a 50% probability by 2100, while demographic resilience keeps stability firmly in play.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

Will Russia Accept a Permanent Ukraine Ceasefire by the End of 2026?

The Forecasting Machine gives Russia only about a 7% chance of accepting a permanent ceasefire by the end of 2026 as active fighting and incompatible terms outweigh mounting pressure for a deal.

2026-07-03The Forecasting Machine

Zelensky’s resilience: two different generations of Hypermind leadership forecasts

A July 2026 market image puts Zelensky almost level with Putin on who loses power first, and ahead of Trump on staying longer. The 2022 baseline asked different questions.

2026-06-21The Forecasting Machine

Will the US and Iran sign a definitive peace agreement in 2026? The machine said “maybe later”

Days after the June 2026 US–Iran memorandum, The Forecasting Machine put 61% on no definitive treaty before the end of 2026. Three months on, the talks have stalled and the forecast is still open.

2026-04-23The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s April 2026 Senate forecast: almost an even contest

On 23 April 2026, Hypermind’s market put Democratic control of the US Senate at 49.5%. Its House forecast looked very different.

2026-02-17The Forecasting Machine

A one-in-four chance: The Forecasting Machine’s December call on Maduro’s removal

On 3 December 2025, The Forecasting Machine put a 25% probability on Nicolás Maduro leaving power before 31 January 2026. A month later US forces captured him. What the forecast saw, and what a single hit does and does not prove.

2026-01-15The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s Insurrection Act forecast: two snapshots of a long-running risk

Two archived Hypermind charts put the risk of Trump invoking the Insurrection Act near one in two, with a deadline in 2029. The market question and the political warning deserve separate readings.

2026-01-13The Forecasting Machine

Powell would finish his term: Hypermind’s 87% call in January 2026

An archived Hypermind chart put Jerome Powell’s chance of completing his term as Federal Reserve chair at 87.0%. The forecast concerned tenure, rather than the outcome of a criminal investigation.