News from the frontier of AI forecasting
FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.
Results for “prediction markets”
Eleven and a half years of Hypermind forecasts: does a 70% price come true 70% of the time?
Émile Servan-Schreiber recomputed the calibration of the Hypermind prediction market over 1,041 questions resolved from 2014 to the end of 2025. Here is what calibration means and how the result compares with earlier snapshots.
Superforecasting at ten, and the “proven forecasters” NewsFutures spotted in 2006
Ten years after Tetlock and Gardner’s Superforecasting, Émile Servan-Schreiber dug out a 2006 NewsFutures market in which the previous quarter’s best forecasters beat the crowd. Why the idea took a decade to be recognised, and where AI fits now.
Red bars and blue bars: how betting markets and forecaster panels split over Harris and Trump
In the final weeks of the 2024 US election, Émile Servan-Schreiber tracked eleven forecasting venues. Real-money markets leaned Trump, forecaster panels leaned Harris, and the result reopened an old argument about what money adds to a forecast.
AI versus the crowd: Hypermind’s hybrid forecast map of the 2024 US presidential election
In September 2024 Hypermind set its new retrieval-augmented AI Forecasting Machine against its human prediction market on a state-by-state election map. How the experiment worked, what it forecast, and what the result can and cannot tell us.
