News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2020-10-29The Forecasting Machine

Collective intelligence is built: Servan-Schreiber on the EVE & Octave podcast

Émile Servan-Schreiber’s conversation with Valérie Angliviel de la Beaumelle argues that effective collective intelligence requires deliberate construction. The programme dates the recording to 15 July 2020.

2020-10-14The Forecasting Machine

Funding the forecast: from Gabe Newell’s NGDP contest to a $90,000 invitation

Two announcements, in 2014 and 2020, show how Hypermind recruited forecasts of US nominal GDP with sponsor-funded prizes rather than participants’ money.

2020-09-03The Forecasting Machine

The Long Fork Project: forecasting the consequences of America’s 2020 election

In 2020, Hypermind asked its champion forecasters what the United States would look like in 2022 and 2024 depending on whether Donald Trump won re-election. One of the questions, on national happiness, can now be checked against what happened.

2020-05-29The Forecasting Machine

Opening access to Supercollectif: a free chapter and an English translation

In 2020, Servan-Schreiber shared a free first chapter and a summary of Supercollectif. Earlier that year, Camille Larmanou reported completing an English translation draft.

2020-05-29The Forecasting Machine

After lockdown, Les Echos Weekend asks how to free collective intelligence

Pierre de Gasquet’s May 2020 interview with Émile Servan-Schreiber connected disrupted forecasts, employee independence and the removal of organisational silos.

2020-05-27The Forecasting Machine

Don Moore’s confidence research and the discipline of forecasting

In May 2020, Émile Servan-Schreiber recommended Perfectly Confident. Moore’s book and forecasting research make the case for confidence tested against results.

2020-05-06The Forecasting Machine

UM6P’s 2020 webinars connect consensus, misinformation and group reasoning

A recovered programme sets out a spring–summer research series organised by Brent Strickland and Cathal O’Madagain. Its opening topic asks when agreement represents independent evidence.

2020-05-05The Forecasting Machine

L’INNOVORE’s collective look at business after COVID

In May 2020, L’INNOVORE credited Émile Servan-Schreiber among contributors to a white paper on COVID risks and opportunities in food and distribution.

2020-04-09The Forecasting Machine

UM6P research on misinformation and producer incentives

An April 2020 announcement connects scientific misinformation to evolved intuitions and producer incentives, with implications for collective judgement.

2020-04-07The Forecasting Machine

JEDI’s COVID drug-discovery challenge: collective ambition meets experimental checks

An April 2020 announcement proposed a rapid search through billions of molecules. Later research documents the candidate screening, laboratory tests and limits of that effort.

2020-04-06The Forecasting Machine

Scott Page’s many-model thinking, from a book to epidemic explanations

Servan-Schreiber shared Scott Page’s book announcement in 2018 and recommended an epidemic video in April 2020. Official university materials recover the modelling context behind those short posts.

2020-04-04The Forecasting Machine

From May to September: Hypermind’s school-reopening forecasts during France’s first lockdown

Two spring 2020 snapshots show a sharp change in Hypermind’s expected timing of France’s school reopening. The eventual phased return highlights why resolution criteria matter as much as the date bands.