News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2021-09-23The Forecasting Machine

The US–China compute race in Hypermind’s September 2021 AI contest

Bilingual invitations asked forecasters to move beyond AI-supremacy rhetoric and predict documented training compute. Their six-to-one baseline was a historical measurement, not a probability of winning.

2021-09-12The Forecasting Machine

Nuclear energy in the EU taxonomy: Hypermind’s September 2021 snapshot

On 12 September 2021, a Hypermind card gave nuclear inclusion in the EU’s green taxonomy that year a 30.0% chance. The later policy milestones fell in 2022 and 2023.

2021-09-11The Forecasting Machine

Morocco 2021: what survives of Hypermind’s forecast that the PJD would lose power

Hypermind said its market anticipated the PJD’s loss of power months ahead. The surviving chart clarifies the question, but its final 100% price is a retrospective snapshot rather than a pre-election forecast.

2021-08-18The Forecasting Machine

Diversity, inclusion and collective intelligence: Aïda Touihri’s Balenciaga masterclass

Aïda Touihri’s bilingual diversity masterclass brought together genetics, cognitive psychology, workplace inclusion and history, with a contribution from Émile Servan-Schreiber.

2021-06-09The Forecasting Machine

UM6P’s 2021 Collective Intelligence Assembly links research with civic participation

The announced 11–12 June online programme brought together research talks and a proposed civic hackathon on youth participation in Moroccan elections.

2021-06-08The Forecasting Machine

Le Point and Hypermind launch the Institut Supercollectif, a forecasting panel of magazine readers

In June 2021 the French newsweekly Le Point and Hypermind opened a joint forecasting institute that turns readers’ predictions on politics, geopolitics, science and the economy into probabilities, and later offered them to businesses and governments.

2021-04-15The Forecasting Machine

UM6P’s 2021 plan to train a Moroccan crowd for COVID forecasting

A researcher profile announced a campus-based forecasting project in Morocco, supported by a Social Innovation Lab grant and proposed international collaboration.

2021-03-28The Forecasting Machine

Conformity and energy choices: a collective-intelligence critique from 2021

Servan-Schreiber’s brief comment on gas, hydrogen and nuclear policy raises a question about how groups judge evidence. The policy disagreement and the diagnosis of conformity need separate scrutiny.

2021-03-04The Forecasting Machine

Supercollectif in public: television, podcasts and print, 2018–2021

Follow Supercollectif’s public conversations from ARTE and Vision Summit to radio, INOP’S magazine, B SMART and a Clubhouse invitation, 2018–2021.

2020-12-19The Forecasting Machine

On SMART@WORK, collective intelligence becomes a leadership question

In December 2020, Aurélie Planeix brought Hypermind, GEFCO and Manutan together to discuss how free opinions, diverse contributions and rules can work inside companies.

2020-11-18The Forecasting Machine

Carrefour 2020 takes participatory innovation online

Innov’Acteurs moved its 2020 participatory-innovation gathering online. Its white paper records Servan-Schreiber’s roundtable contribution on independence, diversity and listening.

2020-11-04The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind's 2020 US election forecasts: Biden favored, uncertainty intact

Hypermind kept Biden ahead without calling the race certain, anticipated Harris as his running mate, and assigned a minority probability to the loser refusing to accept defeat before Thanksgiving.