News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2020-03-20The Forecasting Machine

Better off after four years? Hypermind’s March 2020 economic questions

Hypermind’s March 2020 dashboard gave an 82% chance of the Dow exceeding its 2016 election-day close and a 70.7% chance of higher unemployment. The two measures could move in different directions.

2020-03-10The Forecasting Machine

Crowd forecasts of COVID-19 reach the US Congress, March 2020

On 5 March 2020, Johns Hopkins researcher Tara Kirk Sell told a House committee about a disease-prediction platform built with Hypermind. In the weeks that followed, Hypermind published public COVID-19 forecasts and co-ran a teaching contest, and Émile Servan-Schreiber argued for a French prediction market on health policy.

2020-03-05The Forecasting Machine

An hourly COVID economic dashboard, and Émile’s idea of hybrid collective intelligence

Pierre Haren announced four hourly updated charts in March 2020. Causality Link’s contemporaneous analysis explains how machine reading could organize a crowd’s explanations.

2020-02-12The Forecasting Machine

At Le Cube, a discussion of collective intelligence and the risks of consensus

The 11 February 2020 Rendez-vous des Futurs interview brought Émile Servan-Schreiber’s collective-intelligence argument to Le Cube, with disagreement central to an attendee’s recap.

2020-02-12The Forecasting Machine

01Edu’s peer pedagogy as an application of supercollective intelligence

In February 2020, Servan-Schreiber highlighted Nicolas Sadirac’s educational platform as a practical example of organising collective intelligence.

2020-02-11The Forecasting Machine

ManpowerGroup asks how collective intelligence can become a business practice

Two early-2020 shares promoted Émile Servan-Schreiber’s business advice. A recoverable ManpowerGroup recap explains its emphasis on listening and open-minded decisions.

2020-02-03The Forecasting Machine

INOP’S and Hypermind explore innovation selection and predictive marketing

At a January 2020 INOP’S workshop, Émile Servan-Schreiber and Marc Schilling discussed collective intelligence for innovation selection and predictive marketing.

2020-02-03The Forecasting Machine

Iowa 2020: Sanders at 71%, but what counted as winning?

Hypermind favoured Bernie Sanders at 71% before Iowa’s 2020 caucuses. The archived chart and disputed results show why a forecast needs a clear winning rule.

2020-01-30The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s January 2020 forecast on Isabelle Kocher

Hypermind’s 30 January 2020 snapshot put Isabelle Kocher’s renewal at ENGIE at 21%, before the board announced non-renewal a week later on 6 February.

2020-01-29The Forecasting Machine

At EDF’s L’Com lecture, collecting opinions becomes a question of method

A participant asked whether television street interviews were collective intelligence. The reported answer explains why diverse opinions need an organised process and a common purpose.

2020-01-27The Forecasting Machine

Dati in the polls, Griveaux in the market: Paris’s January 2020 race

Hypermind’s Paris mayoral market gave Anne Hidalgo a 55.9% chance of winning on a chart shared on 27 January 2020. Its challenger ranking differed from first-round vote intentions, without creating a like-for-like accuracy test.

2020-01-26The Forecasting Machine

“Tech for smart”: the collective-intelligence argument at BlendWebMix 2019

A Lyon conference and its short recap put disagreement, diversity and the design of digital platforms at the centre of Servan-Schreiber’s technology argument.