News from the frontier of AI forecasting
FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.
Results for “Track record”
Eleven and a half years of Hypermind forecasts: does a 70% price come true 70% of the time?
Émile Servan-Schreiber recomputed the calibration of the Hypermind prediction market over 1,041 questions resolved from 2014 to the end of 2025. Here is what calibration means and how the result compares with earlier snapshots.
Three early questions for The Forecasting Machine, a year on: the shutdown, the Trump coin and late-night TV
In its first weeks, The Forecasting Machine was asked how long the 2025 US shutdown would last, whether a Trump dollar coin would be minted and which talk-show host would be cancelled next. Here is how its reasoning held up.
Hypermind’s Ukraine war forecasts, 2022–2023: what the crowd got right and wrong
On the war’s first anniversary, Émile Servan-Schreiber published Hypermind’s forecasts for its second year. A look back at the crowd’s record since January 2022: an invasion it rated as possible but not likely, a serious early misjudgment about Zelensky, and a run of calls that held up.
Two years in one chart: how Hypermind’s market priced the 2017 French presidential race
From Alain Juppé’s long lead to François Fillon’s collapse and Emmanuel Macron’s rise, Hypermind’s prediction market tracked the 2017 French election from July 2015. Marine Le Pen never rose much above 15%, even after Brexit and Trump.
