News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2024-08-21The Forecasting Machine

The other candidate: what Hypermind’s 2024 Matignon market missed

Hypermind’s crowd favoured an unnamed successor to Gabriel Attal in August 2024. Michel Barnier, already listed at low odds, was appointed on 5 September.

2024-07-25The Forecasting Machine

Shapiro led Hypermind’s July 2024 running-mate forecast; Harris chose Walz

On 25 July 2024, Josh Shapiro led Hypermind’s forecast of the Democratic vice-presidential nominee. The recovered chart put him below 50% and left an unnamed category that included the eventual selection.

2024-04-15The Forecasting Machine

Supercollectif readers: organising independent judgement

Readers of Supercollectif describe independent judgement, diverse information and practical team habits, from robotics to workshops and business strategy.

2024-03-28The Forecasting Machine

From Hypermind to Citalid: Maxime Cartan on collective judgement and cyber risk

In a March 2024 VISCONTI Talk, Citalid’s co-founder recalled his Hypermind experience and explained why complementary people and quantified risk matter to leadership.

2024-03-14The Forecasting Machine

Learning collective intelligence by doing: Hypermind at Sciences Po

A practical Sciences Po Executive Education workshop paired group estimation and brainstorming with Hypermind prediction markets. Five years later, Servan-Schreiber recalled the collaboration around Supercollectif.

2024-03-02The Forecasting Machine

Gender diversity and group intelligence: from laboratory studies to workplace practice

Social sensitivity, shared speaking time and gender diversity appear in research on group performance. Servan-Schreiber connects those findings to workplace practice.

2024-01-03The Forecasting Machine

Nine questions for a widening war: Hypermind’s Middle East agenda in January 2024

Hypermind opened questions on cross-border fighting, diplomatic ruptures and leadership survival. The archived announcement records the questions, without odds.

2023-12-13The Forecasting Machine

Wagner, territory and presidential tenure: three Hypermind questions in 2023

At 09:20 GMT on 24 June 2023, Hypermind gave Putin a 60% chance of remaining president through year-end. A December update asked a different question about which wartime leader would lose power first.

2023-11-30The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s November 2023 crisis contest turns geopolitical concern into dated probabilities

Hypermind’s November 2023 crisis contest published six-month probabilities by country and risk type, giving geopolitical concerns a defined place and time horizon.

2023-10-11The Forecasting Machine

Thirty projects later: Hypermind and EDF’s Parlons Énergies programme

From a Saclay lecture and a summer university to an exchange in Rabat, EDF’s Parlons Énergies programme put collective forecasting and prioritisation into organisational practice.

2023-10-06The Forecasting Machine

At the OECD’s 2023 foresight meeting, Hypermind shares crowd-forecasting use cases

Servan-Schreiber discussed geopolitics, public health and AI forecasting at the Government Foresight Community’s October 2023 meeting in Paris.

2023-09-26The Forecasting Machine

At Luminus, collective intelligence starts by including other people’s thoughts

A September 2023 presentation linked diversity with collective intelligence. Luminus’s own sustainability report places the talk within its inclusion programme.