News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2023-12-13The Forecasting Machine

Wagner, territory and presidential tenure: three Hypermind questions in 2023

At 09:20 GMT on 24 June 2023, Hypermind gave Putin a 60% chance of remaining president through year-end. A December update asked a different question about which wartime leader would lose power first.

2022-10-21The Forecasting Machine

Do prediction markets reward the lone right answer? Servan-Schreiber’s reply to a PNAS model of collective intelligence

A 2017 PNAS model found that “market rewards” make crowds herd and proposed paying accurate minorities instead. Émile Servan-Schreiber argues that real prediction markets already pay that way.

2022-07-06The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind gave Boris Johnson a 92% chance of losing his job in 2022

A recovered July 2022 chart turns an informal warning into a dated probability with a calendar-year horizon. Johnson announced his resignation the next day but remained prime minister until September.

2022-05-02The Forecasting Machine

Bettors versus pollsters: the Hypermind–Le Point panel and the 2022 Macron–Le Pen run-off

Across 143 daily rolling polls of the 2022 French presidential run-off, the Hypermind–Le Point panel’s forecast was closer to the final result in 128 cases. What was compared, how the panel worked, and where the comparison has limits.

2022-04-23The Forecasting Machine

Before the run-off: Hypermind tracks Zemmour, Pécresse and the changing 2022 field

Hypermind’s 2021–2022 updates record a volatile contest behind Macron. Recovered charts show why presidential victory, run-off qualification and conditional chances cannot be read as interchangeable numbers.

2022-04-02The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s eve-of-election Orbán forecast in 2022

On 2 April 2022, Servan-Schreiber reported four-in-five odds for Orbán; the attached Hypermind chart showed 81.9%. Fidesz–KDNP then won 135 seats.

2022-03-26The Forecasting Machine

Building Hypermind’s forecasting interfaces, 2016–2022

Historical recruitment posts trace Hypermind’s public and corporate interfaces, mobile requirements and remote development work from 2016 through 2022.

2022-01-11The Forecasting Machine

Ask what your circle thinks: an implicit super-sample for surveys and forecasts

A 2022 Electoral Studies paper examined why asking about other people's preferences can outperform asking only about one's own—and how the same mechanism may help prediction markets.

2021-10-04The Forecasting Machine

Teaching the wisdom of crowds: UM6P’s first collective-intelligence master’s cohorts

From recruitment in 2020 to a second teaching year in 2021, Servan-Schreiber’s archive follows a Moroccan programme combining cognitive science, data and group design.

2021-09-12The Forecasting Machine

Nuclear energy in the EU taxonomy: Hypermind’s September 2021 snapshot

On 12 September 2021, a Hypermind card gave nuclear inclusion in the EU’s green taxonomy that year a 30.0% chance. The later policy milestones fell in 2022 and 2023.

2020-11-04The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind's 2020 US election forecasts: Biden favored, uncertainty intact

Hypermind kept Biden ahead without calling the race certain, anticipated Harris as his running mate, and assigned a minority probability to the loser refusing to accept defeat before Thanksgiving.

2020-10-14The Forecasting Machine

Funding the forecast: from Gabe Newell’s NGDP contest to a $90,000 invitation

Two announcements, in 2014 and 2020, show how Hypermind recruited forecasts of US nominal GDP with sponsor-funded prizes rather than participants’ money.