News from the frontier of AI forecasting
FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.
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Eleven and a half years of Hypermind forecasts: does a 70% price come true 70% of the time?
Émile Servan-Schreiber recomputed the calibration of the Hypermind prediction market over 1,041 questions resolved from 2014 to the end of 2025. Here is what calibration means and how the result compares with earlier snapshots.
Glimt in Paris: interim results at the Swedish Embassy, then the French press
On 7 October 2025, FOI and Hypermind presented Glimt’s interim record at the Swedish Embassy in Paris: 71% of outcomes called correctly across 31 resolved questions. Le Figaro and France 24 covered the project two weeks later.
Three early questions for The Forecasting Machine, a year on: the shutdown, the Trump coin and late-night TV
In its first weeks, The Forecasting Machine was asked how long the 2025 US shutdown would last, whether a Trump dollar coin would be minted and which talk-show host would be cancelled next. Here is how its reasoning held up.
Superforecasting at ten, and the “proven forecasters” NewsFutures spotted in 2006
Ten years after Tetlock and Gardner’s Superforecasting, Émile Servan-Schreiber dug out a 2006 NewsFutures market in which the previous quarter’s best forecasters beat the crowd. Why the idea took a decade to be recognised, and where AI fits now.
