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FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.
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What 15 months of crowd forecasting taught Johns Hopkins about disease outbreaks
A study by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and Hypermind, published in November 2021, followed 562 forecasters through 61 questions on 19 diseases. The combined crowd forecast was well calibrated, beat chance by a wide margin and outscored every individual, including the public-health experts.
Le Point and Hypermind launch the Institut Supercollectif, a forecasting panel of magazine readers
In June 2021 the French newsweekly Le Point and Hypermind opened a joint forecasting institute that turns readers’ predictions on politics, geopolitics, science and the economy into probabilities, and later offered them to businesses and governments.
The Long Fork Project: forecasting the consequences of America’s 2020 election
In 2020, Hypermind asked its champion forecasters what the United States would look like in 2022 and 2024 depending on whether Donald Trump won re-election. One of the questions, on national happiness, can now be checked against what happened.
Crowd forecasts of COVID-19 reach the US Congress, March 2020
On 5 March 2020, Johns Hopkins researcher Tara Kirk Sell told a House committee about a disease-prediction platform built with Hypermind. In the weeks that followed, Hypermind published public COVID-19 forecasts and co-ran a teaching contest, and Émile Servan-Schreiber argued for a French prediction market on health policy.
Lumenogic joins IARPA’s Hybrid Forecasting Competition
In July 2017, Émile Servan-Schreiber announced that Lumenogic, the company behind Hypermind, had joined one of three teams in a US intelligence research programme on combining human and machine forecasts. The work led to Hypermind’s Prescience platform.
Hypermind and the Mercatus Center launch a nominal GDP futures market
In May 2017, economist Scott Sumner and the Mercatus Center at George Mason University teamed up with Hypermind to run a market forecasting US nominal GDP growth. The goal was to test whether a crowd’s expectations could one day guide monetary policy.
Two years in one chart: how Hypermind’s market priced the 2017 French presidential race
From Alain Juppé’s long lead to François Fillon’s collapse and Emmanuel Macron’s rise, Hypermind’s prediction market tracked the 2017 French election from July 2015. Marine Le Pen never rose much above 15%, even after Brexit and Trump.
Hypermind’s 2016: ahead of the betting markets on Trump’s nomination, then one chance in four for Brexit and the White House
Hypermind scored its 2016 Republican nomination forecasts 35–40% better than Betfair, PredictIt and the Iowa Electronic Markets. Months later it gave Brexit and a Trump presidency about one chance in four. What a year of hits and misses says about probabilities.
