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Superforecasting at ten, and the “proven forecasters” NewsFutures spotted in 2006
Ten years after Tetlock and Gardner’s Superforecasting, Émile Servan-Schreiber dug out a 2006 NewsFutures market in which the previous quarter’s best forecasters beat the crowd. Why the idea took a decade to be recognised, and where AI fits now.
Glimt opens to the public: Sweden’s crowd-forecasting platform for Ukraine
On 20 January 2025, FOI opened Glimt, a free platform where volunteers forecast the war, politics and economy questions that Ukrainian analysts worry about, using Hypermind’s technology. Within five weeks it had more than 10,000 forecasters.
Red bars and blue bars: how betting markets and forecaster panels split over Harris and Trump
In the final weeks of the 2024 US election, Émile Servan-Schreiber tracked eleven forecasting venues. Real-money markets leaned Trump, forecaster panels leaned Harris, and the result reopened an old argument about what money adds to a forecast.
AI versus the crowd: Hypermind’s hybrid forecast map of the 2024 US presidential election
In September 2024 Hypermind set its new retrieval-augmented AI Forecasting Machine against its human prediction market on a state-by-state election map. How the experiment worked, what it forecast, and what the result can and cannot tell us.
Hypermind’s Ukraine war forecasts, 2022–2023: what the crowd got right and wrong
On the war’s first anniversary, Émile Servan-Schreiber published Hypermind’s forecasts for its second year. A look back at the crowd’s record since January 2022: an invasion it rated as possible but not likely, a serious early misjudgment about Zelensky, and a run of calls that held up.
Do prediction markets reward the lone right answer? Servan-Schreiber’s reply to a PNAS model of collective intelligence
A 2017 PNAS model found that “market rewards” make crowds herd and proposed paying accurate minorities instead. Émile Servan-Schreiber argues that real prediction markets already pay that way.
Bettors versus pollsters: the Hypermind–Le Point panel and the 2022 Macron–Le Pen run-off
Across 143 daily rolling polls of the 2022 French presidential run-off, the Hypermind–Le Point panel’s forecast was closer to the final result in 128 cases. What was compared, how the panel worked, and where the comparison has limits.
