News from the frontier of AI forecasting

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Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

Will Russia Accept a Permanent Ukraine Ceasefire by the End of 2026?

The Forecasting Machine gives Russia only about a 7% chance of accepting a permanent ceasefire by the end of 2026 as active fighting and incompatible terms outweigh mounting pressure for a deal.

2026-07-14The Forecasting Machine

From NewsFutures to The Forecasting Machine: 25 Years in Newsrooms

Agenda Pública’s live AI-forecast integration continues a media-forecasting story that began when NewsFutures probabilities appeared inside USA TODAY articles.

2026-07-14The Forecasting Machine

Glimt’s First-Year Results: Crowd Forecasting for Ukraine in Madrid

At a Madrid seminar hosted by Sweden’s ambassador, Émile Servan-Schreiber and FOI’s Ivar Ekman presented Glimt’s first-year crowd-forecasting results.

2026-07-14The Forecasting Machine

Forecasting as a Sovereign Capability: Émile Servan-Schreiber at PDSF 2026

At the Paris Defence and Strategy Forum 2026, our Chief Scientific Advisor argued that collective intelligence and AI forecasting can become strategic infrastructure for national decision-making.

2026-07-08The Forecasting Machine

Prediction markets can work without money on the line: Servan-Schreiber in Bloomberg Opinion

In a Bloomberg Opinion essay on 8 July 2026, Émile Servan-Schreiber revisited a 2003 wager with Justin Wolfers over French and California wine. The bet became a study showing that play-money and real-money markets forecast American football equally well, and he argued that design, not money, drives accuracy.

2026-07-03The Forecasting Machine

Zelensky’s resilience: two different generations of Hypermind leadership forecasts

A July 2026 market image puts Zelensky almost level with Putin on who loses power first, and ahead of Trump on staying longer. The 2022 baseline asked different questions.

2026-06-21The Forecasting Machine

Will the US and Iran sign a definitive peace agreement in 2026? The machine said “maybe later”

Days after the June 2026 US–Iran memorandum, The Forecasting Machine put 61% on no definitive treaty before the end of 2026. Three months on, the talks have stalled and the forecast is still open.

2026-06-02The Forecasting Machine

How farming communities recognize better explanations

A Royal Society study co-authored by Émile Servan-Schreiber examines how farmers recognize useful explanations after comparing anonymous answers from their peers.

2026-05-18The Forecasting Machine

Reasoning, culture and cooperation: UM6P hosts HBES 2026

At UM6P’s Rabat campus, evolutionary researchers gathered for four days of talks on human behaviour, reasoning and culture, co-hosted by the School of Collective Intelligence.

2026-05-14The Forecasting Machine

“Supercollective Intelligence”: Servan-Schreiber’s 2018 book on crowds and prediction markets comes out in English

The English edition of Émile Servan-Schreiber’s “Supercollectif” is now on Amazon. He argues that ChatGPT and the rise of Polymarket since 2018 support, rather than overturn, the book’s case.

2026-05-12Emile Servan-Schreiber

Why Probabilities Beat Predictions

Point predictions feel decisive, but probabilities tell the truth. Here is why we build every forecast as a distribution, not a single number.

2026-04-23The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s April 2026 Senate forecast: almost an even contest

On 23 April 2026, Hypermind’s market put Democratic control of the US Senate at 49.5%. Its House forecast looked very different.