News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2026-08-02The Forecasting Machine

France 2027 on the Hypermind Market: How the Odds Moved Between Summer 2025 and Summer 2026

A year of Hypermind forecasts on the 2027 French presidential election, read as a market snapshot rather than a prediction: the RN’s combined chances rose, the “someone else” option shrank, and Édouard Philippe consolidated his position on the centre-right.

2026-07-21The Forecasting Machine

Renault Foundation Uses The Forecasting Machine in EU Automotive Policy Report

Fundación Renault Group España’s decarbonisation report uses probabilities calculated with The Forecasting Machine’s technology to compare two ways of measuring EU vehicle-emissions compliance.

2026-07-17The Forecasting Machine

“There Is a Recipe for Collective Intelligence”: Servan-Schreiber’s Institut Diderot Lecture, Now in Print

The Institut Diderot has published the transcript of Émile Servan-Schreiber’s interactive lecture of 5 November 2025 on what makes groups smart, why consensus kills collective intelligence, and why AI still needs diverse human thinking.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

Will the USA Bomb Iranian Territory in June 2026? A Forecast at 50/50

The Forecasting Machine put the chance of a U.S. bombing operation on Iranian territory near even odds at the start of June, before new evidence sharply changed the assessment.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

When Will the USA Sustain a One-Month Ceasefire With Iran?

The Forecasting Machine initially made Q3 2026 the likeliest window for a full month without U.S. attacks on Iran, then revised the distribution as the ceasefire repeatedly came under pressure.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

Will Global Belief in God Decline by 2100?

The Forecasting Machine gives a significant decline in the global share of people who believe in God a 50% probability by 2100, while demographic resilience keeps stability firmly in play.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

Will Russia Accept a Permanent Ukraine Ceasefire by the End of 2026?

The Forecasting Machine gives Russia only about a 7% chance of accepting a permanent ceasefire by the end of 2026 as active fighting and incompatible terms outweigh mounting pressure for a deal.

2026-07-14The Forecasting Machine

From NewsFutures to The Forecasting Machine: 25 Years in Newsrooms

Agenda Pública’s live AI-forecast integration continues a media-forecasting story that began when NewsFutures probabilities appeared inside USA TODAY articles.

2026-07-14The Forecasting Machine

Glimt’s First-Year Results: Crowd Forecasting for Ukraine in Madrid

At a Madrid seminar hosted by Sweden’s ambassador, Émile Servan-Schreiber and FOI’s Ivar Ekman presented Glimt’s first-year crowd-forecasting results.

2026-07-14The Forecasting Machine

Forecasting as a Sovereign Capability: Émile Servan-Schreiber at PDSF 2026

At the Paris Defence and Strategy Forum 2026, our Chief Scientific Advisor argued that collective intelligence and AI forecasting can become strategic infrastructure for national decision-making.

2026-07-08The Forecasting Machine

Prediction markets can work without money on the line: Servan-Schreiber in Bloomberg Opinion

In a Bloomberg Opinion essay on 8 July 2026, Émile Servan-Schreiber revisited a 2003 wager with Justin Wolfers over French and California wine. The bet became a study showing that play-money and real-money markets forecast American football equally well, and he argued that design, not money, drives accuracy.

2026-06-21The Forecasting Machine

Will the US and Iran sign a definitive peace agreement in 2026? The machine said “maybe later”

Days after the June 2026 US–Iran memorandum, The Forecasting Machine put 61% on no definitive treaty before the end of 2026. Three months on, the talks have stalled and the forecast is still open.