Some of the forecasting archive’s shortest posts are invitations: join a contest, examine what an election might change, or watch a conversation about decisions. Five notices between 2012 and 2026 connect those activities with the communities around Lumenogic, Hypermind and NewsFutures. They preserve questions and intentions, while leaving enough gaps that the announcements cannot be used as a forecasting scorecard.
11 December 2012: An economic-indicator contest
Servan-Schreiber advertised $41,500 for forecasting US economic indicators and credited Lumenogic as the provider. He asked whether the crowd could beat Bloomberg at that task. The amount is the post’s figure, with no recovered rules showing its allocation. The surviving notice names neither the indicators nor the benchmark, forecast deadline or results. It documents a proposed comparison, with no evidence that the crowd won. Hypermind’s company history places the Lumenogic name after the 2010 NewsFutures rebranding.
3 September 2020: Two of five measures after an election
In September 2020, Servan-Schreiber wrote that champion forecasters expected America’s November choice to affect only two of five socioeconomic variables. The attached Long Fork schematic names COVID-19 mortality, real GDP, the S&P 500, happiness and employment, with paths for Biden and Trump towards 2022 and 2024. It gives no forecast differences and does not identify the two variables he meant. His statement is therefore an attributed interpretation of a conditional comparison; it cannot establish an observed causal effect or a scored success.
29 March 2021: An AI-progress invitation on B SMART
Servan-Schreiber reported a morning interview with Delphine Sabattier on B SMART about Hypermind’s AI-progress forecasting competition. His 29 March invitation said participation continued until 15 April. That is the deadline as he published it, rather than a reconstructed contest rule. The post adds a television outreach moment to the AI-progress competition covered elsewhere in the journal. It supplies no odds, interview transcript or new claim about later benchmark accuracy.
25 March 2022: Decisions and their implicit forecasts
Jean-Claude Lamoureux introduced a conversation by arguing that deciding involves projecting into the future, and therefore forecasting. His announcement described Hypermind as working with businesses, governments and NGOs, without naming deployments. Servan-Schreiber welcomed the exchange. The archive preserves the host’s framing and praise; the full interview, concrete recommendations and measured decision outcomes remain unavailable. Its useful question is what expectations about tomorrow lie behind a choice made today.
23 January 2026: A project code-named NewsFutures
At the end of a prediction-market retrospective, Servan-Schreiber said his team was working on a new project code-named NewsFutures. He also recalled traders from the original community still participating in Hypermind. The company’s official history confirms NewsFutures’ 2000 origins and subsequent USA Today collaboration, already examined in our history of forecasting in newsrooms. The distinct January 2026 news is the teaser: no release date, specification, public product or relationship to The Forecasting Machine is established by it.
Across these notices, recruitment, scenario comparison and discussion of decisions all support a forecasting community. Evaluating its predictions would require a different record: the original estimates, dates, question definitions and comparable outcomes. Those missing details should remain visible rather than be replaced with the results of a different contest or an inferred product launch.
