News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2026-08-07The Forecasting Machine

Inside NewsFutures’ 2001 US launch: contracts, prizes and early forecasts

USA TODAY’s December 2001 NewsFutures release explains the sports and money partnership, reader trading, points and prizes, and its early forecasting claims.

2026-07-14The Forecasting Machine

From NewsFutures to The Forecasting Machine: 25 Years in Newsrooms

Agenda Pública’s live AI-forecast integration continues a media-forecasting story that began when NewsFutures probabilities appeared inside USA TODAY articles.

2026-07-08The Forecasting Machine

Prediction markets can work without money on the line: Servan-Schreiber in Bloomberg Opinion

In a Bloomberg Opinion essay on 8 July 2026, Émile Servan-Schreiber revisited a 2003 wager with Justin Wolfers over French and California wine. The bet became a study showing that play-money and real-money markets forecast American football equally well, and he argued that design, not money, drives accuracy.

2026-01-23The Forecasting Machine

From Lumenogic contests to a NewsFutures teaser: forecasting notices, 2012–2026

Five dated notices connect Lumenogic’s economic contest, Long Fork, Hypermind’s AI competition and decision-making interviews to a 2026 NewsFutures teaser.

2025-09-30The Forecasting Machine

Superforecasting at ten, and the “proven forecasters” NewsFutures spotted in 2006

Ten years after Tetlock and Gardner’s Superforecasting, Émile Servan-Schreiber dug out a 2006 NewsFutures market in which the previous quarter’s best forecasters beat the crowd. Why the idea took a decade to be recognised, and where AI fits now.

2023-01-30The Forecasting Machine

L’Éléphant’s Hypermind clipping prompts a reflection on a life’s work

The recovered clipping is a short account of Hypermind’s origins and forecasting contests. Servan-Schreiber’s response turns its heading, L’anecdote, into a reflection on research.

2019-09-04The Forecasting Machine

Lumenogic becomes Hypermind: one forecasting company, three names and two decades

In September 2019, Émile Servan-Schreiber announced that Lumenogic would consolidate its prediction-market and collective-intelligence work under the Hypermind name.