News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2026-01-31The Forecasting Machine

How the OECD’s foresight unit fits crowd and AI forecasting into policy planning

From a Paris meeting of government foresight teams in October 2025 to an EU expert hearing in January 2026, the OECD’s Strategic Foresight Unit has set out where Glimt and The Forecasting Machine fit, and where they don’t.

2026-01-23The Forecasting Machine

From Lumenogic contests to a NewsFutures teaser: forecasting notices, 2012–2026

Five dated notices connect Lumenogic’s economic contest, Long Fork, Hypermind’s AI competition and decision-making interviews to a 2026 NewsFutures teaser.

2026-01-22The Forecasting Machine

Citizens as reasoners: a case for open democracy

From a 2016 citizen primary to Hélène Landemore’s 2026 book, Émile Servan-Schreiber connects democratic participation with the design of collective reasoning.

2026-01-20The Forecasting Machine

Hugo, Galton and the clues a crowd can put together

Victor Hugo’s prose, Galton’s ox-weight study and a submarine-search account illustrate different ways of assembling scattered information.

2026-01-15The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s Insurrection Act forecast: two snapshots of a long-running risk

Two archived Hypermind charts put the risk of Trump invoking the Insurrection Act near one in two, with a deadline in 2029. The market question and the political warning deserve separate readings.

2026-01-13The Forecasting Machine

Powell would finish his term: Hypermind’s 87% call in January 2026

An archived Hypermind chart put Jerome Powell’s chance of completing his term as Federal Reserve chair at 87.0%. The forecast concerned tenure, rather than the outcome of a criminal investigation.

2026-01-13The Forecasting Machine

The collective-intelligence handbook: from open access to institutional readers

A 2023 handbook brought crowd forecasting into a wider account of democratic governance. Its editors later reported growing downloads and institutional interest.

2026-01-01The Forecasting Machine

Eleven and a half years of Hypermind forecasts: does a 70% price come true 70% of the time?

Émile Servan-Schreiber recomputed the calibration of the Hypermind prediction market over 1,041 questions resolved from 2014 to the end of 2025. Here is what calibration means and how the result compares with earlier snapshots.

2025-12-21The Forecasting Machine

What Mallat and Guadalupe saw in Supercollectif: ensembles and decisions

At a November 2018 Institut Sapiens presentation, Stéphane Mallat and Maria Guadalupe approached Supercollectif from different disciplines. Their responses shared a concern with how intelligence is organised.

2025-11-06The Forecasting Machine

LLM narratives and macroeconomic data: the Murex research proposal Émile shared

In November 2025, a proposed Murex doctorate combined narrative monitoring with market and macroeconomic data. Émile shared the invitation, not a finished forecasting result.

2025-10-17The Forecasting Machine

UM6P makes collective-intelligence education a certificate-by-certificate pathway

UM6P’s professional education in collective intelligence expanded from a 2024 Executive Master intake to modular certificates announced for January 2026.

2025-10-11The Forecasting Machine

From a royal audience to French readers: Glimt’s public reception in 2025

Glimt’s first year brought a royal unveiling, ministerial encouragement, an EU presentation and French recruitment—and a debate about whether ordinary citizens can forecast strategically.