News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2022-07-03The Forecasting Machine

Khiplace and Hypermind pool investor judgement on emerging risks

A June 2022 inaugural meeting and a July risk-prioritisation invitation show how Khiplace and Hypermind sought to combine investors’ knowledge. No ranked results survive here.

2022-06-28The Forecasting Machine

At Arthur D. Little’s Faro meeting, diversity enters the collective-intelligence equation

At Arthur D. Little’s 2022 partners meeting in Faro, Émile Servan-Schreiber connected diversity with methods for combining a group’s contributions.

2022-06-11The Forecasting Machine

Mélenchon at 3%, a presidential majority at 76.2%: Hypermind before the 2022 legislative election

Hypermind’s 11 June 2022 graphic gave Mélenchon a 3% chance of becoming prime minister before Bastille Day. Its companion government forecast was less successful.

2022-06-02The Forecasting Machine

Learning collective intelligence through student experiments at UM6P

Student surveys, an online social-sensitivity test and a forecaster’s account of reinvesting his winnings show how collective intelligence was taught through practice.

2022-05-13The Forecasting Machine

Edvance uses Hypermind STORM to surface nuclear-safety priorities and disagreements

A May 2022 participant account describes an Edvance exercise moving from employee ideas to voting, with disagreements made visible alongside priorities.

2022-05-02The Forecasting Machine

Bettors versus pollsters: the Hypermind–Le Point panel and the 2022 Macron–Le Pen run-off

Across 143 daily rolling polls of the 2022 French presidential run-off, the Hypermind–Le Point panel’s forecast was closer to the final result in 128 cases. What was compared, how the panel worked, and where the comparison has limits.

2022-04-26The Forecasting Machine

Dissent and groupthink: a collective-intelligence reading of the Ukraine war

An April 2022 post used Russia’s failure to capture Kyiv to argue for dissent and error correction. The argument is useful, but its causal claims need limits.

2022-04-23The Forecasting Machine

Before the run-off: Hypermind tracks Zemmour, Pécresse and the changing 2022 field

Hypermind’s 2021–2022 updates record a volatile contest behind Macron. Recovered charts show why presidential victory, run-off qualification and conditional chances cannot be read as interchangeable numbers.

2022-04-02The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s eve-of-election Orbán forecast in 2022

On 2 April 2022, Servan-Schreiber reported four-in-five odds for Orbán; the attached Hypermind chart showed 81.9%. Fidesz–KDNP then won 135 seats.

2022-03-26The Forecasting Machine

Building Hypermind’s forecasting interfaces, 2016–2022

Historical recruitment posts trace Hypermind’s public and corporate interfaces, mobile requirements and remote development work from 2016 through 2022.

2022-03-16The Forecasting Machine

Inria opens DIXIT with a discussion of collective intelligence

The first DIXIT conference put collective intelligence at the centre of Inria’s staff discussions. Surviving programme artwork and attendee accounts document the event; its podcast remains unconfirmed.

2022-01-11The Forecasting Machine

Ask what your circle thinks: an implicit super-sample for surveys and forecasts

A 2022 Electoral Studies paper examined why asking about other people's preferences can outperform asking only about one's own—and how the same mechanism may help prediction markets.