News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2024-12-07The Forecasting Machine

Assad’s last weekend: Hypermind’s 91.1% forecast before the fall

A chart shared on 7 December 2024 gave Assad a 91.1% chance of losing power before 2026. His government fell the following day.

2024-11-02The Forecasting Machine

Voter enthusiasm was not a win probability: Harris in 2024

Gallup found a Democratic enthusiasm lead in late October 2024. Servan-Schreiber saw it as good news for Harris, but the measure did not predict her chance of winning.

2024-10-19The Forecasting Machine

Red bars and blue bars: how betting markets and forecaster panels split over Harris and Trump

In the final weeks of the 2024 US election, Émile Servan-Schreiber tracked eleven forecasting venues. Real-money markets leaned Trump, forecaster panels leaned Harris, and the result reopened an old argument about what money adds to a forecast.

2024-10-11The Forecasting Machine

At EY, Supercollectif prompts a discussion about women’s participation in decisions

An attendee’s account of an EY seminar connects Supercollectif with gender inclusion. Group-intelligence research helps explain the argument without turning it into a guarantee.

2024-10-05The Forecasting Machine

At Programme EVE 2024, complementary perspectives become collective intelligence

In Évian, Émile Servan-Schreiber used an Adam-and-Eve metaphor to explain how different perspectives can complete each other. Programme EVE’s recap connected that argument to more reliable group decisions.

2024-09-30The Forecasting Machine

From cryptocurrency governance to gorilla songs: UM6P’s collective-intelligence research graduates

UM6P’s September 2024 thesis defences show the breadth of collective-intelligence research: community governance, Moroccan nomads, language origins and deliberation.

2024-09-18The Forecasting Machine

AI versus the crowd: Hypermind’s hybrid forecast map of the 2024 US presidential election

In September 2024 Hypermind set its new retrieval-augmented AI Forecasting Machine against its human prediction market on a state-by-state election map. How the experiment worked, what it forecast, and what the result can and cannot tell us.

2024-09-10The Forecasting Machine

Les Intelligences Collectives revisits Supercollectif with its author

Sophie Frantz and Laure Dumont moved from a 2023 book discussion to an author interview. A 2024 recap returned to the conditions for collective intelligence.

2024-09-07The Forecasting Machine

Building a collective-intelligence school: UM6P’s recruitment plans, 2021–2024

Three recruitment announcements show UM6P’s School of Collective Intelligence seeking political-science researchers, social-data expertise and advisory staff.

2024-08-21The Forecasting Machine

The other candidate: what Hypermind’s 2024 Matignon market missed

Hypermind’s crowd favoured an unnamed successor to Gabriel Attal in August 2024. Michel Barnier, already listed at low odds, was appointed on 5 September.

2024-07-25The Forecasting Machine

Shapiro led Hypermind’s July 2024 running-mate forecast; Harris chose Walz

On 25 July 2024, Josh Shapiro led Hypermind’s forecast of the Democratic vice-presidential nominee. The recovered chart put him below 50% and left an unnamed category that included the eventual selection.

2024-04-15The Forecasting Machine

Supercollectif readers: organising independent judgement

Readers of Supercollectif describe independent judgement, diverse information and practical team habits, from robotics to workshops and business strategy.