News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2018-12-04The Forecasting Machine

At La Baule, collective intelligence starts with individual expression

At a December 2018 writers’ roundtable with Bernard Werber and Patrice Jean, Servan-Schreiber argued that intelligent collectives need room for each individual voice.

2018-11-28The Forecasting Machine

In La Liberté, Servan-Schreiber argues for continuous citizen intelligence

A November 2018 interview proposed that elected representatives continually gather citizens’ judgement and use forecasts to inform major policy choices.

2018-11-01The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s November 2018 US midterm forecasts: a split Congress was the favourite

Five days before the 2018 US midterms, Hypermind’s dashboard favoured Republican Senate control and a Democratic House. Both happened; the probabilities deserve context.

2018-07-05The Forecasting Machine

GS1’s 2018 summer university asks how shared knowledge becomes collective judgement

A July invitation and an October account connect GS1’s shared-knowledge theme with Servan-Schreiber’s practical ingredients for collective intelligence and business forecasting.

2017-09-27The Forecasting Machine

Macron, collective intelligence and the power to decide

A 2017 essay and Management clipping trace Émile Servan-Schreiber’s argument about Macron, diverse contributions and the leader’s final decision.

2017-07-20The Forecasting Machine

Lumenogic joins IARPA’s Hybrid Forecasting Competition

In July 2017, Émile Servan-Schreiber announced that Lumenogic, the company behind Hypermind, had joined one of three teams in a US intelligence research programme on combining human and machine forecasts. The work led to Hypermind’s Prescience platform.

2017-07-05The Forecasting Machine

PerformanSe Day 2017: organising collaboration

Contemporary July 2017 coverage recovers Émile Servan-Schreiber’s PerformanSe Day talk on diverse information, independent judgement and prediction markets.

2017-05-23The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind and the Mercatus Center launch a nominal GDP futures market

In May 2017, economist Scott Sumner and the Mercatus Center at George Mason University teamed up with Hypermind to run a market forecasting US nominal GDP growth. The goal was to test whether a crowd’s expectations could one day guide monetary policy.

2017-05-19The Forecasting Machine

After the presidency: forecasting Macron’s parliamentary majority

In May 2017, Hypermind favoured an absolute legislative majority for La République En Marche. A preserved chart and official results document the forecast and outcome.

2017-05-18The Forecasting Machine

From 40.6% to 50.5%: Hypermind’s May 2017 impeachment forecast

Hypermind’s 17 and 18 May 2017 charts priced House impeachment that year at 40.6% and 50.5%. Trump’s first impeachment occurred in 2019, beyond that horizon.

2017-05-08The Forecasting Machine

Two years in one chart: how Hypermind’s market priced the 2017 French presidential race

From Alain Juppé’s long lead to François Fillon’s collapse and Emmanuel Macron’s rise, Hypermind’s prediction market tracked the 2017 French election from July 2015. Marine Le Pen never rose much above 15%, even after Brexit and Trump.

2017-05-04The Forecasting Machine

Vote share, victory and qualification: three ways to read Hypermind’s 2017 forecasts

Hypermind’s 4 May 2017 mean forecast of Macron’s vote share was 60.8%. Earlier charts show why that number differs from a probability of victory or qualification.