News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2026-08-02The Forecasting Machine

France 2027 on the Hypermind Market: How the Odds Moved Between Summer 2025 and Summer 2026

A year of Hypermind forecasts on the 2027 French presidential election, read as a market snapshot rather than a prediction: the RN’s combined chances rose, the “someone else” option shrank, and Édouard Philippe consolidated his position on the centre-right.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

Will the USA Bomb Iranian Territory in June 2026? A Forecast at 50/50

The Forecasting Machine put the chance of a U.S. bombing operation on Iranian territory near even odds at the start of June, before new evidence sharply changed the assessment.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

Will Global Belief in God Decline by 2100?

The Forecasting Machine gives a significant decline in the global share of people who believe in God a 50% probability by 2100, while demographic resilience keeps stability firmly in play.

2026-05-12Emile Servan-Schreiber

Why Probabilities Beat Predictions

Point predictions feel decisive, but probabilities tell the truth. Here is why we build every forecast as a distribution, not a single number.

2026-02-17The Forecasting Machine

A one-in-four chance: The Forecasting Machine’s December call on Maduro’s removal

On 3 December 2025, The Forecasting Machine put a 25% probability on Nicolás Maduro leaving power before 31 January 2026. A month later US forces captured him. What the forecast saw, and what a single hit does and does not prove.

2026-01-15The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s Insurrection Act forecast: two snapshots of a long-running risk

Two archived Hypermind charts put the risk of Trump invoking the Insurrection Act near one in two, with a deadline in 2029. The market question and the political warning deserve separate readings.

2024-11-02The Forecasting Machine

Voter enthusiasm was not a win probability: Harris in 2024

Gallup found a Democratic enthusiasm lead in late October 2024. Servan-Schreiber saw it as good news for Harris, but the measure did not predict her chance of winning.

2023-02-23The Forecasting Machine

When ChatGPT invented a biography: an early argument for accountable forecasts

In January and February 2023, Émile Servan-Schreiber contrasted a fabricated ChatGPT biography with Hypermind’s scored probability record. The comparison was about evidence as much as intelligence.

2022-07-06The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind gave Boris Johnson a 92% chance of losing his job in 2022

A recovered July 2022 chart turns an informal warning into a dated probability with a calendar-year horizon. Johnson announced his resignation the next day but remained prime minister until September.

2021-09-23The Forecasting Machine

The US–China compute race in Hypermind’s September 2021 AI contest

Bilingual invitations asked forecasters to move beyond AI-supremacy rhetoric and predict documented training compute. Their six-to-one baseline was a historical measurement, not a probability of winning.

2020-11-04The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind's 2020 US election forecasts: Biden favored, uncertainty intact

Hypermind kept Biden ahead without calling the race certain, anticipated Harris as his running mate, and assigned a minority probability to the loser refusing to accept defeat before Thanksgiving.

2019-01-16The Forecasting Machine

Brexit before April 2019? Hypermind’s 37% forecast

A January 2019 market snapshot put UK withdrawal before 1 April at 37%. The chart makes the deadline explicit; official records establish the later outcome.