News from the frontier of AI forecasting
FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.
Results for “Geopolitical forecasting”
A one-in-four chance: The Forecasting Machine’s December call on Maduro’s removal
On 3 December 2025, The Forecasting Machine put a 25% probability on Nicolás Maduro leaving power before 31 January 2026. A month later US forces captured him. What the forecast saw, and what a single hit does and does not prove.
Hypermind’s Ukraine war forecasts, 2022–2023: what the crowd got right and wrong
On the war’s first anniversary, Émile Servan-Schreiber published Hypermind’s forecasts for its second year. A look back at the crowd’s record since January 2022: an invasion it rated as possible but not likely, a serious early misjudgment about Zelensky, and a run of calls that held up.
Lumenogic joins IARPA’s Hybrid Forecasting Competition
In July 2017, Émile Servan-Schreiber announced that Lumenogic, the company behind Hypermind, had joined one of three teams in a US intelligence research programme on combining human and machine forecasts. The work led to Hypermind’s Prescience platform.
