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2020-05-29The Forecasting Machine

Opening access to Supercollectif: a free chapter and an English translation

In 2020, Servan-Schreiber shared a free first chapter and a summary of Supercollectif. Earlier that year, Camille Larmanou reported completing an English translation draft.

2020-04-04The Forecasting Machine

From May to September: Hypermind’s school-reopening forecasts during France’s first lockdown

Two spring 2020 snapshots show a sharp change in Hypermind’s expected timing of France’s school reopening. The eventual phased return highlights why resolution criteria matter as much as the date bands.

2020-03-20The Forecasting Machine

Better off after four years? Hypermind’s March 2020 economic questions

Hypermind’s March 2020 dashboard gave an 82% chance of the Dow exceeding its 2016 election-day close and a 70.7% chance of higher unemployment. The two measures could move in different directions.

2020-03-10The Forecasting Machine

Crowd forecasts of COVID-19 reach the US Congress, March 2020

On 5 March 2020, Johns Hopkins researcher Tara Kirk Sell told a House committee about a disease-prediction platform built with Hypermind. In the weeks that followed, Hypermind published public COVID-19 forecasts and co-ran a teaching contest, and Émile Servan-Schreiber argued for a French prediction market on health policy.

2020-02-03The Forecasting Machine

INOP’S and Hypermind explore innovation selection and predictive marketing

At a January 2020 INOP’S workshop, Émile Servan-Schreiber and Marc Schilling discussed collective intelligence for innovation selection and predictive marketing.

2020-02-03The Forecasting Machine

Iowa 2020: Sanders at 71%, but what counted as winning?

Hypermind favoured Bernie Sanders at 71% before Iowa’s 2020 caucuses. The archived chart and disputed results show why a forecast needs a clear winning rule.

2020-01-30The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s January 2020 forecast on Isabelle Kocher

Hypermind’s 30 January 2020 snapshot put Isabelle Kocher’s renewal at ENGIE at 21%, before the board announced non-renewal a week later on 6 February.

2020-01-27The Forecasting Machine

Dati in the polls, Griveaux in the market: Paris’s January 2020 race

Hypermind’s Paris mayoral market gave Anne Hidalgo a 55.9% chance of winning on a chart shared on 27 January 2020. Its challenger ranking differed from first-round vote intentions, without creating a like-for-like accuracy test.

2020-01-25The Forecasting Machine

Support for Guaidó, a cautious forecast for Maduro: Hypermind in January 2020

Émile Servan-Schreiber’s January 2020 support for Juan Guaidó coexisted with a much less optimistic Hypermind forecast. The chart asked about Maduro losing power, regardless of who displaced him.

2019-11-21The Forecasting Machine

At Fessenheim, a collective-forecasting talk meets a disputed closure decision

Émile Servan-Schreiber’s November 2019 lecture linked collective forecasts with open-minded decisions, while his recap sharply criticised Fessenheim’s planned closure.

2019-11-06The Forecasting Machine

Dice rolls and jelly beans: practising collective judgement at 1337

A November 2019 account describes Hypermind dice-roll markets and jelly-bean experiments in Morocco, with Pavel Atanasov contributing to the 1337 class.

2019-09-04The Forecasting Machine

Lumenogic becomes Hypermind: one forecasting company, three names and two decades

In September 2019, Émile Servan-Schreiber announced that Lumenogic would consolidate its prediction-market and collective-intelligence work under the Hypermind name.