News from the frontier of AI forecasting
FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.
Results for “wisdom of crowds”
“Performance = Expertise + Diversity”: Servan-Schreiber on the If This Then Dev Podcast
In an hour-long episode of the French developer podcast If This Then Dev, published on 12 August 2026, Émile Servan-Schreiber explained why groups need rules to be smart, how many novices it takes to match an expert, and why he sees large language models as collective intelligence.
“Supercollective Intelligence”: Servan-Schreiber’s 2018 book on crowds and prediction markets comes out in English
The English edition of Émile Servan-Schreiber’s “Supercollectif” is now on Amazon. He argues that ChatGPT and the rise of Polymarket since 2018 support, rather than overturn, the book’s case.
Do prediction markets reward the lone right answer? Servan-Schreiber’s reply to a PNAS model of collective intelligence
A 2017 PNAS model found that “market rewards” make crowds herd and proposed paying accurate minorities instead. Émile Servan-Schreiber argues that real prediction markets already pay that way.
What 15 months of crowd forecasting taught Johns Hopkins about disease outbreaks
A study by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and Hypermind, published in November 2021, followed 562 forecasters through 61 questions on 19 diseases. The combined crowd forecast was well calibrated, beat chance by a wide margin and outscored every individual, including the public-health experts.
Le Point and Hypermind launch the Institut Supercollectif, a forecasting panel of magazine readers
In June 2021 the French newsweekly Le Point and Hypermind opened a joint forecasting institute that turns readers’ predictions on politics, geopolitics, science and the economy into probabilities, and later offered them to businesses and governments.
