News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2026-09-14The Forecasting Machine

Agenda Pública Launches Agenda Futura With The Forecasting Machine

Spanish policy outlet Agenda Pública has launched Agenda Futura, pairing The Forecasting Machine’s live AI forecasts with analysis from its journalists and experts.

2026-08-07The Forecasting Machine

Inside NewsFutures’ 2001 US launch: contracts, prizes and early forecasts

USA TODAY’s December 2001 NewsFutures release explains the sports and money partnership, reader trading, points and prizes, and its early forecasting claims.

2026-03-02The Forecasting Machine

On B SMART, Servan-Schreiber Explains Why a Panel of AI Models Can Forecast Like a Panel of Experts

On B SMART’s Smart Tech on 2 March 2026, Émile Servan-Schreiber told Delphine Sabattier how The Forecasting Machine combines several language models into one sourced forecast, and why he sees those models as collective intelligence in their own right.

2026-01-15The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s Insurrection Act forecast: two snapshots of a long-running risk

Two archived Hypermind charts put the risk of Trump invoking the Insurrection Act near one in two, with a deadline in 2029. The market question and the political warning deserve separate readings.

2023-09-26The Forecasting Machine

At Luminus, collective intelligence starts by including other people’s thoughts

A September 2023 presentation linked diversity with collective intelligence. Luminus’s own sustainability report places the talk within its inclusion programme.

2022-04-23The Forecasting Machine

Before the run-off: Hypermind tracks Zemmour, Pécresse and the changing 2022 field

Hypermind’s 2021–2022 updates record a volatile contest behind Macron. Recovered charts show why presidential victory, run-off qualification and conditional chances cannot be read as interchangeable numbers.

2021-11-21The Forecasting Machine

What 15 months of crowd forecasting taught Johns Hopkins about disease outbreaks

A study by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and Hypermind, published in November 2021, followed 562 forecasters through 61 questions on 19 diseases. The combined crowd forecast was well calibrated, beat chance by a wide margin and outscored every individual, including the public-health experts.

2021-10-04The Forecasting Machine

Teaching the wisdom of crowds: UM6P’s first collective-intelligence master’s cohorts

From recruitment in 2020 to a second teaching year in 2021, Servan-Schreiber’s archive follows a Moroccan programme combining cognitive science, data and group design.

2020-03-05The Forecasting Machine

An hourly COVID economic dashboard, and Émile’s idea of hybrid collective intelligence

Pierre Haren announced four hourly updated charts in March 2020. Causality Link’s contemporaneous analysis explains how machine reading could organize a crowd’s explanations.

2018-12-16The Forecasting Machine

Egosystème asks what makes a group intelligent: Servan-Schreiber on RTS in 2018

RTS’s 15 December 2018 episode connected Supercollectif with listening, diverse perspectives and the possibility of organising larger groups through digital networks.

2018-12-04The Forecasting Machine

At La Baule, collective intelligence starts with individual expression

At a December 2018 writers’ roundtable with Bernard Werber and Patrice Jean, Servan-Schreiber argued that intelligent collectives need room for each individual voice.

2017-05-18The Forecasting Machine

From 40.6% to 50.5%: Hypermind’s May 2017 impeachment forecast

Hypermind’s 17 and 18 May 2017 charts priced House impeachment that year at 40.6% and 50.5%. Trump’s first impeachment occurred in 2019, beyond that horizon.