News from the frontier of AI forecasting
FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.
Results for “France”
The Forecasting Machine Partners With Institut Montaigne on France’s 2027 Policy Choices
Institut Montaigne’s Les repères de Montaigne programme will use The Forecasting Machine’s probabilities to examine priority government actions after the 2027 election. The contribution belongs to the forthcoming 25th note, on the opening months of the next term.
Which 2027 Candidate Will Talk Digital Best? The Forecasting Machine’s First Campaign Forecasts on POL/N
On Delphine Sabattier’s POL/N podcast, Émile Servan-Schreiber presented The Forecasting Machine’s first forecasts on digital issues in France’s 2027 presidential race, from AI’s likely effect on the vote to Europe’s best chance of a real technology race, and debated them with Bernard Benhamou of the Institut de la souveraineté numérique.
Polls, Prediction Markets or AI? Servan-Schreiber and Verian’s Laure Salvaing on Reading France’s 2027 Election
In an Atlantico cross-interview, Émile Servan-Schreiber and pollster Laure Salvaing disagreed on what prediction markets measure and whether AI-simulated voters can replace real ones. A B SMART interview the same month added his view that, for forecasting at scale, AI has already won.
France 2027 on the Hypermind Market: How the Odds Moved Between Summer 2025 and Summer 2026
A year of Hypermind forecasts on the 2027 French presidential election, read as a market snapshot rather than a prediction: the RN’s combined chances rose, the “someone else” option shrank, and Édouard Philippe consolidated his position on the centre-right.
L’Express Interviews Émile Servan-Schreiber on Polymarket and Money-Free Forecasting
Days after France blocked Polymarket, L’Express interviewed Émile Servan-Schreiber, who argues that cash wagering is not what makes a crowd forecast accurate—and who described The Forecasting Machine’s all-AI system to the paper.
Glimt in Paris: interim results at the Swedish Embassy, then the French press
On 7 October 2025, FOI and Hypermind presented Glimt’s interim record at the Swedish Embassy in Paris: 71% of outcomes called correctly across 31 resolved questions. Le Figaro and France 24 covered the project two weeks later.
