News from the frontier of AI forecasting
FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.
Results for “forecasting”
Human diversity and AI model collapse: a question from UM6P’s 2025 debate
A February 2025 essay turned a debate about the future of human intelligence around: could AI sustain its performance without fresh, diverse human observations? Research on recursive training gives the question a concrete basis.
Glimt opens to the public: Sweden’s crowd-forecasting platform for Ukraine
On 20 January 2025, FOI opened Glimt, a free platform where volunteers forecast the war, politics and economy questions that Ukrainian analysts worry about, using Hypermind’s technology. Within five weeks it had more than 10,000 forecasters.
Red bars and blue bars: how betting markets and forecaster panels split over Harris and Trump
In the final weeks of the 2024 US election, Émile Servan-Schreiber tracked eleven forecasting venues. Real-money markets leaned Trump, forecaster panels leaned Harris, and the result reopened an old argument about what money adds to a forecast.
AI versus the crowd: Hypermind’s hybrid forecast map of the 2024 US presidential election
In September 2024 Hypermind set its new retrieval-augmented AI Forecasting Machine against its human prediction market on a state-by-state election map. How the experiment worked, what it forecast, and what the result can and cannot tell us.
