News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2024-09-18The Forecasting Machine

AI versus the crowd: Hypermind’s hybrid forecast map of the 2024 US presidential election

In September 2024 Hypermind set its new retrieval-augmented AI Forecasting Machine against its human prediction market on a state-by-state election map. How the experiment worked, what it forecast, and what the result can and cannot tell us.

2024-09-10The Forecasting Machine

Les Intelligences Collectives revisits Supercollectif with its author

Sophie Frantz and Laure Dumont moved from a 2023 book discussion to an author interview. A 2024 recap returned to the conditions for collective intelligence.

2024-09-07The Forecasting Machine

Building a collective-intelligence school: UM6P’s recruitment plans, 2021–2024

Three recruitment announcements show UM6P’s School of Collective Intelligence seeking political-science researchers, social-data expertise and advisory staff.

2024-08-21The Forecasting Machine

The other candidate: what Hypermind’s 2024 Matignon market missed

Hypermind’s crowd favoured an unnamed successor to Gabriel Attal in August 2024. Michel Barnier, already listed at low odds, was appointed on 5 September.

2024-04-15The Forecasting Machine

Supercollectif readers: organising independent judgement

Readers of Supercollectif describe independent judgement, diverse information and practical team habits, from robotics to workshops and business strategy.

2024-03-28The Forecasting Machine

From Hypermind to Citalid: Maxime Cartan on collective judgement and cyber risk

In a March 2024 VISCONTI Talk, Citalid’s co-founder recalled his Hypermind experience and explained why complementary people and quantified risk matter to leadership.

2024-03-14The Forecasting Machine

Learning collective intelligence by doing: Hypermind at Sciences Po

A practical Sciences Po Executive Education workshop paired group estimation and brainstorming with Hypermind prediction markets. Five years later, Servan-Schreiber recalled the collaboration around Supercollectif.

2024-03-02The Forecasting Machine

Gender diversity and group intelligence: from laboratory studies to workplace practice

Social sensitivity, shared speaking time and gender diversity appear in research on group performance. Servan-Schreiber connects those findings to workplace practice.

2023-10-11The Forecasting Machine

Thirty projects later: Hypermind and EDF’s Parlons Énergies programme

From a Saclay lecture and a summer university to an exchange in Rabat, EDF’s Parlons Énergies programme put collective forecasting and prioritisation into organisational practice.

2023-09-26The Forecasting Machine

At Luminus, collective intelligence starts by including other people’s thoughts

A September 2023 presentation linked diversity with collective intelligence. Luminus’s own sustainability report places the talk within its inclusion programme.

2023-09-20The Forecasting Machine

“Governing is predicting”: crowd forecasting at the Brussels Democracy Lab

At a Democracy Lab on smarter crowdsourcing in Brussels on 19 September 2023, Émile Servan-Schreiber gave EU policymakers five reasons to use crowd forecasting, starting with the idea that governing is predicting.

2023-07-06The Forecasting Machine

How independent errors become a crowd forecast: Hypermind’s four aggregation steps

A July 2023 preview highlighted the value of combining different judgements. Its technical companion explains weighting, culling, averaging and extremizing.