News from the frontier of AI forecasting
FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.
Results for “calibration”
Play money, same ballpark: Hypermind’s 12-year accuracy benchmark against Polymarket and Kalshi
Hypermind published the data from 1,141 play-money markets resolved since 2014 and compared them with Polymarket and Kalshi. The report concludes the three are at parity, and an independent commentator agreed that parity, not victory, is the defensible reading.
A one-in-four chance: The Forecasting Machine’s December call on Maduro’s removal
On 3 December 2025, The Forecasting Machine put a 25% probability on Nicolás Maduro leaving power before 31 January 2026. A month later US forces captured him. What the forecast saw, and what a single hit does and does not prove.
Eleven and a half years of Hypermind forecasts: does a 70% price come true 70% of the time?
Émile Servan-Schreiber recomputed the calibration of the Hypermind prediction market over 1,041 questions resolved from 2014 to the end of 2025. Here is what calibration means and how the result compares with earlier snapshots.
Glimt in Paris: interim results at the Swedish Embassy, then the French press
On 7 October 2025, FOI and Hypermind presented Glimt’s interim record at the Swedish Embassy in Paris: 71% of outcomes called correctly across 31 resolved questions. Le Figaro and France 24 covered the project two weeks later.
What 15 months of crowd forecasting taught Johns Hopkins about disease outbreaks
A study by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and Hypermind, published in November 2021, followed 562 forecasters through 61 questions on 19 diseases. The combined crowd forecast was well calibrated, beat chance by a wide margin and outscored every individual, including the public-health experts.
