News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2026-09-28The Forecasting Machine

Four lessons from 25 years of crowd forecasting: Servan-Schreiber at the Lürssen Foundation workshop

At a workshop convened by MIT’s Dražen Prelec in Rijeka on 1–2 October 2026, Émile Servan-Schreiber was scheduled to present four lessons on money, Brier scores, the Bayesian Truth Serum and AI forecasting.

2026-01-31The Forecasting Machine

How the OECD’s foresight unit fits crowd and AI forecasting into policy planning

From a Paris meeting of government foresight teams in October 2025 to an EU expert hearing in January 2026, the OECD’s Strategic Foresight Unit has set out where Glimt and The Forecasting Machine fit, and where they don’t.

2025-03-19The Forecasting Machine

How humans and an early forecasting AI saw 2030: the OECD's Hypermind pilot

An OECD foresight exercise compared aggregate human forecasts with an early LLM-based system across 25 possible AI benefits and risks to 2030—and emphasized the limits of both.

2022-05-02The Forecasting Machine

Bettors versus pollsters: the Hypermind–Le Point panel and the 2022 Macron–Le Pen run-off

Across 143 daily rolling polls of the 2022 French presidential run-off, the Hypermind–Le Point panel’s forecast was closer to the final result in 128 cases. What was compared, how the panel worked, and where the comparison has limits.

2022-04-26The Forecasting Machine

Dissent and groupthink: a collective-intelligence reading of the Ukraine war

An April 2022 post used Russia’s failure to capture Kyiv to argue for dissent and error correction. The argument is useful, but its causal claims need limits.

2021-03-28The Forecasting Machine

Conformity and energy choices: a collective-intelligence critique from 2021

Servan-Schreiber’s brief comment on gas, hydrogen and nuclear policy raises a question about how groups judge evidence. The policy disagreement and the diagnosis of conformity need separate scrutiny.

2021-03-04The Forecasting Machine

Supercollectif in public: television, podcasts and print, 2018–2021

Follow Supercollectif’s public conversations from ARTE and Vision Summit to radio, INOP’S magazine, B SMART and a Clubhouse invitation, 2018–2021.

2020-04-07The Forecasting Machine

JEDI’s COVID drug-discovery challenge: collective ambition meets experimental checks

An April 2020 announcement proposed a rapid search through billions of molecules. Later research documents the candidate screening, laboratory tests and limits of that effort.

2020-03-10The Forecasting Machine

Crowd forecasts of COVID-19 reach the US Congress, March 2020

On 5 March 2020, Johns Hopkins researcher Tara Kirk Sell told a House committee about a disease-prediction platform built with Hypermind. In the weeks that followed, Hypermind published public COVID-19 forecasts and co-ran a teaching contest, and Émile Servan-Schreiber argued for a French prediction market on health policy.

2019-10-07The Forecasting Machine

Collective intelligence in Lausanne: what the 2019 Vaud forum taught its audience

The forum brought research on groups into a business audience’s planning questions. An attendee’s four lessons need to be read alongside their evidence limits.

2019-09-04The Forecasting Machine

From MIT’s collective intelligence research to ARTEM’s educational ambition in Nancy

Thomas Malone’s 2017 keynote at Nancy’s Alliance ARTEM inspired an educational proposal connecting MIT’s collective-intelligence research with a multidisciplinary campus.

2018-12-24The Forecasting Machine

Cause à effet pairs collective intelligence with Orelsan and an AI song

Cause Commune’s December 2018 interview with Servan-Schreiber explored collective intelligence, bias and conformity, alongside musical selections by Orelsan and SKYGGE.