News from the frontier of AI forecasting
FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.
Results for “Crowd forecasting”
Four lessons from 25 years of crowd forecasting: Servan-Schreiber at the Lürssen Foundation workshop
At a workshop convened by MIT’s Dražen Prelec in Rijeka on 1–2 October 2026, Émile Servan-Schreiber was scheduled to present four lessons on money, Brier scores, the Bayesian Truth Serum and AI forecasting.
Teaching students to forecast: Servan-Schreiber’s seminar at IE University and his class in the UM6P Executive MBA
A new run of “How to predict the future with collective and artificial intelligence” began at IE University on 14 September 2026, with students learning by forecasting in live prediction tournaments.
Crowds versus language models: the more accurate the AI forecaster, the more it errs like humans
A Philosophical Transactions B paper co-authored by Émile Servan-Schreiber compares 76 language-model setups with human crowds on 580 ForecastBench questions and finds evidence for the accuracy–correlation effect.
Hypermind and beBartlet bring prediction markets to European strategic consulting
At Mobile World Congress in Barcelona on 4 March 2026, Hypermind and the Spanish public-affairs consultancy beBartlet announced an exclusive alliance to use crowd forecasting and prediction markets in strategic advice across Europe.
How the OECD’s foresight unit fits crowd and AI forecasting into policy planning
From a Paris meeting of government foresight teams in October 2025 to an EU expert hearing in January 2026, the OECD’s Strategic Foresight Unit has set out where Glimt and The Forecasting Machine fit, and where they don’t.
