News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2022-05-02The Forecasting Machine

Bettors versus pollsters: the Hypermind–Le Point panel and the 2022 Macron–Le Pen run-off

Across 143 daily rolling polls of the 2022 French presidential run-off, the Hypermind–Le Point panel’s forecast was closer to the final result in 128 cases. What was compared, how the panel worked, and where the comparison has limits.

2022-04-26The Forecasting Machine

Dissent and groupthink: a collective-intelligence reading of the Ukraine war

An April 2022 post used Russia’s failure to capture Kyiv to argue for dissent and error correction. The argument is useful, but its causal claims need limits.

2022-03-16The Forecasting Machine

Inria opens DIXIT with a discussion of collective intelligence

The first DIXIT conference put collective intelligence at the centre of Inria’s staff discussions. Surviving programme artwork and attendee accounts document the event; its podcast remains unconfirmed.

2022-01-11The Forecasting Machine

Ask what your circle thinks: an implicit super-sample for surveys and forecasts

A 2022 Electoral Studies paper examined why asking about other people's preferences can outperform asking only about one's own—and how the same mechanism may help prediction markets.

2021-10-04The Forecasting Machine

Teaching the wisdom of crowds: UM6P’s first collective-intelligence master’s cohorts

From recruitment in 2020 to a second teaching year in 2021, Servan-Schreiber’s archive follows a Moroccan programme combining cognitive science, data and group design.

2021-08-18The Forecasting Machine

Diversity, inclusion and collective intelligence: Aïda Touihri’s Balenciaga masterclass

Aïda Touihri’s bilingual diversity masterclass brought together genetics, cognitive psychology, workplace inclusion and history, with a contribution from Émile Servan-Schreiber.

2021-06-09The Forecasting Machine

UM6P’s 2021 Collective Intelligence Assembly links research with civic participation

The announced 11–12 June online programme brought together research talks and a proposed civic hackathon on youth participation in Moroccan elections.

2021-06-08The Forecasting Machine

Le Point and Hypermind launch the Institut Supercollectif, a forecasting panel of magazine readers

In June 2021 the French newsweekly Le Point and Hypermind opened a joint forecasting institute that turns readers’ predictions on politics, geopolitics, science and the economy into probabilities, and later offered them to businesses and governments.

2021-03-28The Forecasting Machine

Conformity and energy choices: a collective-intelligence critique from 2021

Servan-Schreiber’s brief comment on gas, hydrogen and nuclear policy raises a question about how groups judge evidence. The policy disagreement and the diagnosis of conformity need separate scrutiny.

2021-03-04The Forecasting Machine

Supercollectif in public: television, podcasts and print, 2018–2021

Follow Supercollectif’s public conversations from ARTE and Vision Summit to radio, INOP’S magazine, B SMART and a Clubhouse invitation, 2018–2021.

2020-12-19The Forecasting Machine

On SMART@WORK, collective intelligence becomes a leadership question

In December 2020, Aurélie Planeix brought Hypermind, GEFCO and Manutan together to discuss how free opinions, diverse contributions and rules can work inside companies.

2020-11-18The Forecasting Machine

Carrefour 2020 takes participatory innovation online

Innov’Acteurs moved its 2020 participatory-innovation gathering online. Its white paper records Servan-Schreiber’s roundtable contribution on independence, diversity and listening.