News from the frontier of AI forecasting
FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.
Results for “prediction markets”
Play money, same ballpark: Hypermind’s 12-year accuracy benchmark against Polymarket and Kalshi
Hypermind published the data from 1,141 play-money markets resolved since 2014 and compared them with Polymarket and Kalshi. The report concludes the three are at parity, and an independent commentator agreed that parity, not victory, is the defensible reading.
France 2027 on the Hypermind Market: How the Odds Moved Between Summer 2025 and Summer 2026
A year of Hypermind forecasts on the 2027 French presidential election, read as a market snapshot rather than a prediction: the RN’s combined chances rose, the “someone else” option shrank, and Édouard Philippe consolidated his position on the centre-right.
L’Express Interviews Émile Servan-Schreiber on Polymarket and Money-Free Forecasting
Days after France blocked Polymarket, L’Express interviewed Émile Servan-Schreiber, who argues that cash wagering is not what makes a crowd forecast accurate—and who described The Forecasting Machine’s all-AI system to the paper.
Prediction markets can work without money on the line: Servan-Schreiber in Bloomberg Opinion
In a Bloomberg Opinion essay on 8 July 2026, Émile Servan-Schreiber revisited a 2003 wager with Justin Wolfers over French and California wine. The bet became a study showing that play-money and real-money markets forecast American football equally well, and he argued that design, not money, drives accuracy.
“Supercollective Intelligence”: Servan-Schreiber’s 2018 book on crowds and prediction markets comes out in English
The English edition of Émile Servan-Schreiber’s “Supercollectif” is now on Amazon. He argues that ChatGPT and the rise of Polymarket since 2018 support, rather than overturn, the book’s case.
“The readership is an intelligence asset”: Servan-Schreiber in Agenda Pública on crowds, AI and the press
In a March 2026 interview with Agenda Pública, Émile Servan-Schreiber argued that prediction markets beat polls on method, that AI now forecasts as well as a smart crowd, and that newspapers have wasted what their readers know.
Hypermind and beBartlet bring prediction markets to European strategic consulting
At Mobile World Congress in Barcelona on 4 March 2026, Hypermind and the Spanish public-affairs consultancy beBartlet announced an exclusive alliance to use crowd forecasting and prediction markets in strategic advice across Europe.
