News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2024-10-11The Forecasting Machine

At EY, Supercollectif prompts a discussion about women’s participation in decisions

An attendee’s account of an EY seminar connects Supercollectif with gender inclusion. Group-intelligence research helps explain the argument without turning it into a guarantee.

2022-07-11The Forecasting Machine

“Arising Intelligence”: what Hypermind’s crowd got right and wrong about AI progress

From 2021, Hypermind ran contests asking forecasters to predict AI benchmarks with Jacob Steinhardt of UC Berkeley. Progress on maths and language beat the crowd’s expectations; robustness lagged them.

2022-06-02The Forecasting Machine

Learning collective intelligence through student experiments at UM6P

Student surveys, an online social-sensitivity test and a forecaster’s account of reinvesting his winnings show how collective intelligence was taught through practice.

2022-01-11The Forecasting Machine

Ask what your circle thinks: an implicit super-sample for surveys and forecasts

A 2022 Electoral Studies paper examined why asking about other people's preferences can outperform asking only about one's own—and how the same mechanism may help prediction markets.

2021-09-23The Forecasting Machine

The US–China compute race in Hypermind’s September 2021 AI contest

Bilingual invitations asked forecasters to move beyond AI-supremacy rhetoric and predict documented training compute. Their six-to-one baseline was a historical measurement, not a probability of winning.

2020-10-14The Forecasting Machine

Funding the forecast: from Gabe Newell’s NGDP contest to a $90,000 invitation

Two announcements, in 2014 and 2020, show how Hypermind recruited forecasts of US nominal GDP with sponsor-funded prizes rather than participants’ money.

2019-09-04The Forecasting Machine

From MIT’s collective intelligence research to ARTEM’s educational ambition in Nancy

Thomas Malone’s 2017 keynote at Nancy’s Alliance ARTEM inspired an educational proposal connecting MIT’s collective-intelligence research with a multidisciplinary campus.

2018-12-07The Forecasting Machine

Challenges reviews Supercollectif: a company’s intelligence extends beyond its exceptional individuals

A surviving December 2018 clipping recovers Challenges’ review of Supercollectif. Its emphasis is on the intelligence available among colleagues and customers, while the author links the book to the magazine’s cover question.

2017-05-18The Forecasting Machine

From 40.6% to 50.5%: Hypermind’s May 2017 impeachment forecast

Hypermind’s 17 and 18 May 2017 charts priced House impeachment that year at 40.6% and 50.5%. Trump’s first impeachment occurred in 2019, beyond that horizon.

2015-06-22The Forecasting Machine

Beyond historical data: the 2015 case for collective forecasting

Émile Servan-Schreiber argued that forecasts need information beyond historical datasets. His 2014 election comparison supplies a concrete test, with limits.

2014-08-20The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s 2014 US launch and geopolitical contest

An August 2014 announcement introduced Hypermind’s US version and a €10,000 geopolitical contest, with early research explaining how the market worked.