News from the frontier of AI forecasting
FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.
Results for “AI forecasting”
A 2017 field guide to prediction markets for foresight, reread in 2026
Futuribles International has made Émile Servan-Schreiber’s 14-page toolbox on prediction markets free to download. Written in 2017 for foresight practitioners, its practical rules still hold, and its list of research frontiers reads differently now that AI forecasting exists.
L’Express Interviews Émile Servan-Schreiber on Polymarket and Money-Free Forecasting
Days after France blocked Polymarket, L’Express interviewed Émile Servan-Schreiber, who argues that cash wagering is not what makes a crowd forecast accurate—and who described The Forecasting Machine’s all-AI system to the paper.
Crowds versus language models: the more accurate the AI forecaster, the more it errs like humans
A Philosophical Transactions B paper co-authored by Émile Servan-Schreiber compares 76 language-model setups with human crowds on 580 ForecastBench questions and finds evidence for the accuracy–correlation effect.
“The readership is an intelligence asset”: Servan-Schreiber in Agenda Pública on crowds, AI and the press
In a March 2026 interview with Agenda Pública, Émile Servan-Schreiber argued that prediction markets beat polls on method, that AI now forecasts as well as a smart crowd, and that newspapers have wasted what their readers know.
On B SMART, Servan-Schreiber Explains Why a Panel of AI Models Can Forecast Like a Panel of Experts
On B SMART’s Smart Tech on 2 March 2026, Émile Servan-Schreiber told Delphine Sabattier how The Forecasting Machine combines several language models into one sourced forecast, and why he sees those models as collective intelligence in their own right.
How the OECD’s foresight unit fits crowd and AI forecasting into policy planning
From a Paris meeting of government foresight teams in October 2025 to an EU expert hearing in January 2026, the OECD’s Strategic Foresight Unit has set out where Glimt and The Forecasting Machine fit, and where they don’t.
