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2018-07-05The Forecasting Machine

GS1’s 2018 summer university asks how shared knowledge becomes collective judgement

A July invitation and an October account connect GS1’s shared-knowledge theme with Servan-Schreiber’s practical ingredients for collective intelligence and business forecasting.

2017-07-20The Forecasting Machine

Lumenogic joins IARPA’s Hybrid Forecasting Competition

In July 2017, Émile Servan-Schreiber announced that Lumenogic, the company behind Hypermind, had joined one of three teams in a US intelligence research programme on combining human and machine forecasts. The work led to Hypermind’s Prescience platform.

2017-07-05The Forecasting Machine

PerformanSe Day 2017: organising collaboration

Contemporary July 2017 coverage recovers Émile Servan-Schreiber’s PerformanSe Day talk on diverse information, independent judgement and prediction markets.

2017-05-23The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind and the Mercatus Center launch a nominal GDP futures market

In May 2017, economist Scott Sumner and the Mercatus Center at George Mason University teamed up with Hypermind to run a market forecasting US nominal GDP growth. The goal was to test whether a crowd’s expectations could one day guide monetary policy.

2016-10-03The Forecasting Machine

Collective intelligence in public: Geneva, Kiel and the World Bank, 2013–2016

Dated archive notes follow Émile Servan-Schreiber from global-risk meetings and the World Bank to public talks on collective intelligence, 2013–2016.

2016-02-25The Forecasting Machine

Le Figaro profiles Mathieu Laine, Hypermind’s co-founder

A February 2016 clipping shared by Servan-Schreiber identifies Mathieu Laine as his Hypermind co-founder, connecting a portrait of an ideas broker to the venture’s history.

2016-01-18The Forecasting Machine

How collective intelligence works: a Hypermind–Lumenogic explainer in 2016

A January 2016 HUB Institute lecture and a June 2015 Le Point interview introduce collective intelligence and explain how prediction-market prices express probabilities.

2015-06-02The Forecasting Machine

“Intelligence Is Collective”: Servan-Schreiber at the 2015 Santa Clara conference

A recovered Lumenogic poster and conference programme connect Émile Servan-Schreiber’s general account of intelligence with Hypermind’s election-forecasting research.

2014-09-06The Forecasting Machine

When crowd forecasting reached the Wall Street Journal

A September 2014 Wall Street Journal clipping prompted Émile Servan-Schreiber to point readers toward Hypermind and the research behind crowd forecasts.

2014-08-20The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s 2014 US launch and geopolitical contest

An August 2014 announcement introduced Hypermind’s US version and a €10,000 geopolitical contest, with early research explaining how the market worked.

2014-02-19The Forecasting Machine

Lumenogic-backed marketing research wins a track award in 2014

Two February 2014 announcements celebrated Lumenogic-backed research. The authors’ records establish the award’s scope, while their later journal paper documents a corporate forecasting tournament.

2013-10-18The Forecasting Machine

At École Militaire in 2013, forecasting becomes a question of collective intelligence

A contemporary account of Émile Servan-Schreiber’s October 2013 lecture connects prediction markets, dispersed knowledge and the measurement of geopolitical forecasting.

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