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Forecasts

2026-10-23The Forecasting Machine

The Forecasting Machine opens its 2026 U.S. Senate forecasts to the public

Explore The Forecasting Machine’s public Senate election forecasts, with race probabilities, chamber-control estimates and the reasoning behind each question.

2026-10-12The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind and The Forecasting Machine head to NEXTPredict New York

Émile Servan-Schreiber and Gilles Haumont announce NEXTPredict plans: a crowd-forecasting panel and demonstrations of Hypermind and The Forecasting Machine.

2026-10-09The Forecasting Machine

From worry to decision: Servan-Schreiber’s closing argument in Rijeka

At the Lürssen Foundation seminar in Rijeka, Émile Servan-Schreiber mapped the work around a forecast: defining the problem, shaping questions and making probabilities useful for a decision.

2026-10-08The Forecasting Machine

The Forecasting Machine Partners With Institut Montaigne on France’s 2027 Policy Choices

Institut Montaigne’s Les repères de Montaigne programme will use The Forecasting Machine’s probabilities to examine priority government actions after the 2027 election. The contribution belongs to the forthcoming 25th note, on the opening months of the next term.

2026-10-08The Forecasting Machine

Turning Signals Into Decisions: The Forecasting Machine at the OECD GFC Annual Meeting 2026

After two days at the OECD Government Foresight Community’s 2026 annual meeting, Gilles Haumont argued that foresight needs a faster route into institutional decisions. His account also points to the OECD’s existing use of The Forecasting Machine, alongside an earlier record of forecasting experiments and presentations.

2026-10-02The Forecasting Machine

AI Forecasting vs Prediction Markets: How to Compare the Signals

Compare AI forecasts, Polymarket prices and human crowds on the same question, deadline and evidence cutoff. A practical guide to disagreement, evaluation and decision use.

2026-10-02The Forecasting Machine

Brier Score and Calibration: How to Measure Forecast Accuracy

Calculate a binary Brier score with worked examples, distinguish calibration from accuracy, and compare AI forecasts and prediction markets fairly.

2026-09-28The Forecasting Machine

Four lessons from 25 years of crowd forecasting: Servan-Schreiber at the Lürssen Foundation workshop

At a workshop convened by MIT’s Dražen Prelec in Rijeka on 1–2 October 2026, Émile Servan-Schreiber was scheduled to present four lessons on money, Brier scores, the Bayesian Truth Serum and AI forecasting.

2026-09-22The Forecasting Machine

Polls, Prediction Markets or AI? Servan-Schreiber and Verian’s Laure Salvaing on Reading France’s 2027 Election

In an Atlantico cross-interview, Émile Servan-Schreiber and pollster Laure Salvaing disagreed on what prediction markets measure and whether AI-simulated voters can replace real ones. A B SMART interview the same month added his view that, for forecasting at scale, AI has already won.

2026-09-14The Forecasting Machine

Agenda Pública Launches Agenda Futura With The Forecasting Machine

Spanish policy outlet Agenda Pública has launched Agenda Futura, pairing The Forecasting Machine’s live AI forecasts with analysis from its journalists and experts.

2026-09-14The Forecasting Machine

Teaching students to forecast: Servan-Schreiber’s seminar at IE University and his class in the UM6P Executive MBA

A new run of “How to predict the future with collective and artificial intelligence” began at IE University on 14 September 2026, with students learning by forecasting in live prediction tournaments.

2026-08-24The Forecasting Machine

“Prediction People”: Servan-Schreiber on why money builds the business but not the forecast

In Stuart Crowley’s “Prediction People” interview, published on 24 August 2026, Émile Servan-Schreiber separated the forecasting mechanism from the business model. He also talked about forecasters who have kept playing for 25 years, AI competing with his own product, and why governments should use crowd forecasts.