News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2017-04-21The Forecasting Machine

What would each French president mean for stocks? Hypermind’s April 2017 conditional forecasts

Before the first round, Hypermind published different distributions for the CAC 40’s 10 May close under Le Pen, Fillon or Macron, and Mélenchon presidencies.

2016-12-06The Forecasting Machine

Before Cazeneuve’s appointment: a 59% Hypermind observation on 5 December 2016

A recovered chart shows the market weighing who would succeed Manuel Valls, with Cazeneuve at 59% late on December 5. The official appointment followed on December 6.

2016-10-09The Forecasting Machine

Why nomination odds differ from election odds: Trump in 2016

Hypermind’s February 2016 chart made Trump the nomination favourite while favouring a Democratic presidency. The two panels illustrate why forecasts need precise targets.

2016-10-03The Forecasting Machine

Collective intelligence in public: Geneva, Kiel and the World Bank, 2013–2016

Dated archive notes follow Émile Servan-Schreiber from global-risk meetings and the World Bank to public talks on collective intelligence, 2013–2016.

2016-06-01The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s 2016: ahead of the betting markets on Trump’s nomination, then one chance in four for Brexit and the White House

Hypermind scored its 2016 Republican nomination forecasts 35–40% better than Betfair, PredictIt and the Iowa Electronic Markets. Months later it gave Brexit and a Trump presidency about one chance in four. What a year of hits and misses says about probabilities.

2016-02-25The Forecasting Machine

Le Figaro profiles Mathieu Laine, Hypermind’s co-founder

A February 2016 clipping shared by Servan-Schreiber identifies Mathieu Laine as his Hypermind co-founder, connecting a portrait of an ideas broker to the venture’s history.

2016-01-18The Forecasting Machine

How collective intelligence works: a Hypermind–Lumenogic explainer in 2016

A January 2016 HUB Institute lecture and a June 2015 Le Point interview introduce collective intelligence and explain how prediction-market prices express probabilities.

2015-06-22The Forecasting Machine

Beyond historical data: the 2015 case for collective forecasting

Émile Servan-Schreiber argued that forecasts need information beyond historical datasets. His 2014 election comparison supplies a concrete test, with limits.

2014-09-06The Forecasting Machine

When crowd forecasting reached the Wall Street Journal

A September 2014 Wall Street Journal clipping prompted Émile Servan-Schreiber to point readers toward Hypermind and the research behind crowd forecasts.

2013-10-18The Forecasting Machine

At École Militaire in 2013, forecasting becomes a question of collective intelligence

A contemporary account of Émile Servan-Schreiber’s October 2013 lecture connects prediction markets, dispersed knowledge and the measurement of geopolitical forecasting.

2013-07-22The Forecasting Machine

Lumenogic and the Good Judgment Project’s third-season market, July 2013

Two near-identical July 2013 updates announce a new prediction-market platform for the Good Judgment Project. Company history and primary research place the launch in context.