News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2021-09-23The Forecasting Machine

The US–China compute race in Hypermind’s September 2021 AI contest

Bilingual invitations asked forecasters to move beyond AI-supremacy rhetoric and predict documented training compute. Their six-to-one baseline was a historical measurement, not a probability of winning.

2021-04-15The Forecasting Machine

UM6P’s 2021 plan to train a Moroccan crowd for COVID forecasting

A researcher profile announced a campus-based forecasting project in Morocco, supported by a Social Innovation Lab grant and proposed international collaboration.

2020-03-10The Forecasting Machine

Crowd forecasts of COVID-19 reach the US Congress, March 2020

On 5 March 2020, Johns Hopkins researcher Tara Kirk Sell told a House committee about a disease-prediction platform built with Hypermind. In the weeks that followed, Hypermind published public COVID-19 forecasts and co-ran a teaching contest, and Émile Servan-Schreiber argued for a French prediction market on health policy.

2019-09-04The Forecasting Machine

Lumenogic becomes Hypermind: one forecasting company, three names and two decades

In September 2019, Émile Servan-Schreiber announced that Lumenogic would consolidate its prediction-market and collective-intelligence work under the Hypermind name.

2019-01-16The Forecasting Machine

Brexit before April 2019? Hypermind’s 37% forecast

A January 2019 market snapshot put UK withdrawal before 1 April at 37%. The chart makes the deadline explicit; official records establish the later outcome.

2015-05-31The Forecasting Machine

Crowdfunders and experts largely agreed on theatre projects — with different funding thresholds

A 2015 comment about art and expertise provides a starting point for comparing Kickstarter theatre funding with expert evaluations and later project outcomes.

2014-09-06The Forecasting Machine

When crowd forecasting reached the Wall Street Journal

A September 2014 Wall Street Journal clipping prompted Émile Servan-Schreiber to point readers toward Hypermind and the research behind crowd forecasts.

2014-02-19The Forecasting Machine

Lumenogic-backed marketing research wins a track award in 2014

Two February 2014 announcements celebrated Lumenogic-backed research. The authors’ records establish the award’s scope, while their later journal paper documents a corporate forecasting tournament.