News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2021-11-21The Forecasting Machine

What 15 months of crowd forecasting taught Johns Hopkins about disease outbreaks

A study by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and Hypermind, published in November 2021, followed 562 forecasters through 61 questions on 19 diseases. The combined crowd forecast was well calibrated, beat chance by a wide margin and outscored every individual, including the public-health experts.

2021-11-17The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s Africa of the future contest: Côte d’Ivoire first, a wider agenda next

A November 2021 invitation laid out an Africa-focused forecasting contest, with free participation and a prize pool for the most accurate entrants. A January 2022 methodology note documents its first wave.

2021-10-04The Forecasting Machine

Teaching the wisdom of crowds: UM6P’s first collective-intelligence master’s cohorts

From recruitment in 2020 to a second teaching year in 2021, Servan-Schreiber’s archive follows a Moroccan programme combining cognitive science, data and group design.

2021-09-23The Forecasting Machine

The US–China compute race in Hypermind’s September 2021 AI contest

Bilingual invitations asked forecasters to move beyond AI-supremacy rhetoric and predict documented training compute. Their six-to-one baseline was a historical measurement, not a probability of winning.

2021-09-12The Forecasting Machine

Nuclear energy in the EU taxonomy: Hypermind’s September 2021 snapshot

On 12 September 2021, a Hypermind card gave nuclear inclusion in the EU’s green taxonomy that year a 30.0% chance. The later policy milestones fell in 2022 and 2023.

2021-09-11The Forecasting Machine

Morocco 2021: what survives of Hypermind’s forecast that the PJD would lose power

Hypermind said its market anticipated the PJD’s loss of power months ahead. The surviving chart clarifies the question, but its final 100% price is a retrospective snapshot rather than a pre-election forecast.

2021-08-18The Forecasting Machine

Diversity, inclusion and collective intelligence: Aïda Touihri’s Balenciaga masterclass

Aïda Touihri’s bilingual diversity masterclass brought together genetics, cognitive psychology, workplace inclusion and history, with a contribution from Émile Servan-Schreiber.

2021-06-09The Forecasting Machine

UM6P’s 2021 Collective Intelligence Assembly links research with civic participation

The announced 11–12 June online programme brought together research talks and a proposed civic hackathon on youth participation in Moroccan elections.

2021-06-08The Forecasting Machine

Le Point and Hypermind launch the Institut Supercollectif, a forecasting panel of magazine readers

In June 2021 the French newsweekly Le Point and Hypermind opened a joint forecasting institute that turns readers’ predictions on politics, geopolitics, science and the economy into probabilities, and later offered them to businesses and governments.

2021-04-15The Forecasting Machine

UM6P’s 2021 plan to train a Moroccan crowd for COVID forecasting

A researcher profile announced a campus-based forecasting project in Morocco, supported by a Social Innovation Lab grant and proposed international collaboration.

2021-03-28The Forecasting Machine

Conformity and energy choices: a collective-intelligence critique from 2021

Servan-Schreiber’s brief comment on gas, hydrogen and nuclear policy raises a question about how groups judge evidence. The policy disagreement and the diagnosis of conformity need separate scrutiny.

2021-03-04The Forecasting Machine

Supercollectif in public: television, podcasts and print, 2018–2021

Follow Supercollectif’s public conversations from ARTE and Vision Summit to radio, INOP’S magazine, B SMART and a Clubhouse invitation, 2018–2021.