News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2023-03-24The Forecasting Machine

STORM and the energy-sobriety challenge

Hypermind, EDF and La Poste’s 2022–2023 energy-sobriety initiative used employee ideas and collective prioritisation to shape practical organisational plans.

2023-02-24The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s Ukraine war forecasts, 2022–2023: what the crowd got right and wrong

On the war’s first anniversary, Émile Servan-Schreiber published Hypermind’s forecasts for its second year. A look back at the crowd’s record since January 2022: an invasion it rated as possible but not likely, a serious early misjudgment about Zelensky, and a run of calls that held up.

2023-02-23The Forecasting Machine

When ChatGPT invented a biography: an early argument for accountable forecasts

In January and February 2023, Émile Servan-Schreiber contrasted a fabricated ChatGPT biography with Hypermind’s scored probability record. The comparison was about evidence as much as intelligence.

2023-01-30The Forecasting Machine

L’Éléphant’s Hypermind clipping prompts a reflection on a life’s work

The recovered clipping is a short account of Hypermind’s origins and forecasting contests. Servan-Schreiber’s response turns its heading, L’anecdote, into a reflection on research.

2023-01-17The Forecasting Machine

An 84-minute conversation, then AI-selected clips: Software in Blue on collective intelligence

Steve Mayzak and Chad Tindel’s interview with Émile Servan-Schreiber connected collective intelligence to business forecasting. Two months later, the show used Dubb to select excerpts about cognition and crowd size.

2022-10-21The Forecasting Machine

Do prediction markets reward the lone right answer? Servan-Schreiber’s reply to a PNAS model of collective intelligence

A 2017 PNAS model found that “market rewards” make crowds herd and proposed paying accurate minorities instead. Émile Servan-Schreiber argues that real prediction markets already pay that way.

2022-07-13The Forecasting Machine

Collective intelligence at work: talks and workshops, 2019–2022

Archive notes trace collective-intelligence talks and workshops from coaching and corporate IT to HR, private equity and Leads France between 2019 and 2022.

2022-07-11The Forecasting Machine

“Arising Intelligence”: what Hypermind’s crowd got right and wrong about AI progress

From 2021, Hypermind ran contests asking forecasters to predict AI benchmarks with Jacob Steinhardt of UC Berkeley. Progress on maths and language beat the crowd’s expectations; robustness lagged them.

2022-07-06The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind gave Boris Johnson a 92% chance of losing his job in 2022

A recovered July 2022 chart turns an informal warning into a dated probability with a calendar-year horizon. Johnson announced his resignation the next day but remained prime minister until September.

2022-07-03The Forecasting Machine

Khiplace and Hypermind pool investor judgement on emerging risks

A June 2022 inaugural meeting and a July risk-prioritisation invitation show how Khiplace and Hypermind sought to combine investors’ knowledge. No ranked results survive here.

2022-06-28The Forecasting Machine

At Arthur D. Little’s Faro meeting, diversity enters the collective-intelligence equation

At Arthur D. Little’s 2022 partners meeting in Faro, Émile Servan-Schreiber connected diversity with methods for combining a group’s contributions.

2022-06-11The Forecasting Machine

Mélenchon at 3%, a presidential majority at 76.2%: Hypermind before the 2022 legislative election

Hypermind’s 11 June 2022 graphic gave Mélenchon a 3% chance of becoming prime minister before Bastille Day. Its companion government forecast was less successful.