News from the frontier of AI forecasting
FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.
Results for “forecasting”
Hypermind’s Ukraine war forecasts, 2022–2023: what the crowd got right and wrong
On the war’s first anniversary, Émile Servan-Schreiber published Hypermind’s forecasts for its second year. A look back at the crowd’s record since January 2022: an invasion it rated as possible but not likely, a serious early misjudgment about Zelensky, and a run of calls that held up.
An 84-minute conversation, then AI-selected clips: Software in Blue on collective intelligence
Steve Mayzak and Chad Tindel’s interview with Émile Servan-Schreiber connected collective intelligence to business forecasting. Two months later, the show used Dubb to select excerpts about cognition and crowd size.
Do prediction markets reward the lone right answer? Servan-Schreiber’s reply to a PNAS model of collective intelligence
A 2017 PNAS model found that “market rewards” make crowds herd and proposed paying accurate minorities instead. Émile Servan-Schreiber argues that real prediction markets already pay that way.
