News from the frontier of AI forecasting
FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.
Results for “forecasting”
“Supercollective Intelligence”: Servan-Schreiber’s 2018 book on crowds and prediction markets comes out in English
The English edition of Émile Servan-Schreiber’s “Supercollectif” is now on Amazon. He argues that ChatGPT and the rise of Polymarket since 2018 support, rather than overturn, the book’s case.
Crowds versus language models: the more accurate the AI forecaster, the more it errs like humans
A Philosophical Transactions B paper co-authored by Émile Servan-Schreiber compares 76 language-model setups with human crowds on 580 ForecastBench questions and finds evidence for the accuracy–correlation effect.
“The readership is an intelligence asset”: Servan-Schreiber in Agenda Pública on crowds, AI and the press
In a March 2026 interview with Agenda Pública, Émile Servan-Schreiber argued that prediction markets beat polls on method, that AI now forecasts as well as a smart crowd, and that newspapers have wasted what their readers know.
Hypermind and beBartlet bring prediction markets to European strategic consulting
At Mobile World Congress in Barcelona on 4 March 2026, Hypermind and the Spanish public-affairs consultancy beBartlet announced an exclusive alliance to use crowd forecasting and prediction markets in strategic advice across Europe.
On B SMART, Servan-Schreiber Explains Why a Panel of AI Models Can Forecast Like a Panel of Experts
On B SMART’s Smart Tech on 2 March 2026, Émile Servan-Schreiber told Delphine Sabattier how The Forecasting Machine combines several language models into one sourced forecast, and why he sees those models as collective intelligence in their own right.
A one-in-four chance: The Forecasting Machine’s December call on Maduro’s removal
On 3 December 2025, The Forecasting Machine put a 25% probability on Nicolás Maduro leaving power before 31 January 2026. A month later US forces captured him. What the forecast saw, and what a single hit does and does not prove.
