News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

Will the USA Bomb Iranian Territory in June 2026? A Forecast at 50/50

The Forecasting Machine put the chance of a U.S. bombing operation on Iranian territory near even odds at the start of June, before new evidence sharply changed the assessment.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

When Will the USA Sustain a One-Month Ceasefire With Iran?

The Forecasting Machine initially made Q3 2026 the likeliest window for a full month without U.S. attacks on Iran, then revised the distribution as the ceasefire repeatedly came under pressure.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

Will Global Belief in God Decline by 2100?

The Forecasting Machine gives a significant decline in the global share of people who believe in God a 50% probability by 2100, while demographic resilience keeps stability firmly in play.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

Will Russia Accept a Permanent Ukraine Ceasefire by the End of 2026?

The Forecasting Machine gives Russia only about a 7% chance of accepting a permanent ceasefire by the end of 2026 as active fighting and incompatible terms outweigh mounting pressure for a deal.

2026-07-14The Forecasting Machine

From NewsFutures to The Forecasting Machine: 25 Years in Newsrooms

Agenda Pública’s live AI-forecast integration continues a media-forecasting story that began when NewsFutures probabilities appeared inside USA TODAY articles.

2026-07-14The Forecasting Machine

Glimt’s First-Year Results: Crowd Forecasting for Ukraine in Madrid

At a Madrid seminar hosted by Sweden’s ambassador, Émile Servan-Schreiber and FOI’s Ivar Ekman presented Glimt’s first-year crowd-forecasting results.

2026-07-14The Forecasting Machine

Forecasting as a Sovereign Capability: Émile Servan-Schreiber at PDSF 2026

At the Paris Defence and Strategy Forum 2026, our Chief Scientific Advisor argued that collective intelligence and AI forecasting can become strategic infrastructure for national decision-making.

2026-07-08The Forecasting Machine

Prediction markets can work without money on the line: Servan-Schreiber in Bloomberg Opinion

In a Bloomberg Opinion essay on 8 July 2026, Émile Servan-Schreiber revisited a 2003 wager with Justin Wolfers over French and California wine. The bet became a study showing that play-money and real-money markets forecast American football equally well, and he argued that design, not money, drives accuracy.

2026-07-03The Forecasting Machine

Zelensky’s resilience: two different generations of Hypermind leadership forecasts

A July 2026 market image puts Zelensky almost level with Putin on who loses power first, and ahead of Trump on staying longer. The 2022 baseline asked different questions.

2026-06-21The Forecasting Machine

Will the US and Iran sign a definitive peace agreement in 2026? The machine said “maybe later”

Days after the June 2026 US–Iran memorandum, The Forecasting Machine put 61% on no definitive treaty before the end of 2026. Three months on, the talks have stalled and the forecast is still open.

2026-06-02The Forecasting Machine

How farming communities recognize better explanations

A Royal Society study co-authored by Émile Servan-Schreiber examines how farmers recognize useful explanations after comparing anonymous answers from their peers.

2026-05-18The Forecasting Machine

Reasoning, culture and cooperation: UM6P hosts HBES 2026

At UM6P’s Rabat campus, evolutionary researchers gathered for four days of talks on human behaviour, reasoning and culture, co-hosted by the School of Collective Intelligence.