News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

2018-12-04The Forecasting Machine

At La Baule, collective intelligence starts with individual expression

At a December 2018 writers’ roundtable with Bernard Werber and Patrice Jean, Servan-Schreiber argued that intelligent collectives need room for each individual voice.

2018-11-28The Forecasting Machine

In La Liberté, Servan-Schreiber argues for continuous citizen intelligence

A November 2018 interview proposed that elected representatives continually gather citizens’ judgement and use forecasts to inform major policy choices.

2018-07-05The Forecasting Machine

GS1’s 2018 summer university asks how shared knowledge becomes collective judgement

A July invitation and an October account connect GS1’s shared-knowledge theme with Servan-Schreiber’s practical ingredients for collective intelligence and business forecasting.

2017-09-27The Forecasting Machine

Macron, collective intelligence and the power to decide

A 2017 essay and Management clipping trace Émile Servan-Schreiber’s argument about Macron, diverse contributions and the leader’s final decision.

2017-07-05The Forecasting Machine

PerformanSe Day 2017: organising collaboration

Contemporary July 2017 coverage recovers Émile Servan-Schreiber’s PerformanSe Day talk on diverse information, independent judgement and prediction markets.

2016-10-03The Forecasting Machine

Collective intelligence in public: Geneva, Kiel and the World Bank, 2013–2016

Dated archive notes follow Émile Servan-Schreiber from global-risk meetings and the World Bank to public talks on collective intelligence, 2013–2016.

2016-01-18The Forecasting Machine

How collective intelligence works: a Hypermind–Lumenogic explainer in 2016

A January 2016 HUB Institute lecture and a June 2015 Le Point interview introduce collective intelligence and explain how prediction-market prices express probabilities.

2015-06-22The Forecasting Machine

Beyond historical data: the 2015 case for collective forecasting

Émile Servan-Schreiber argued that forecasts need information beyond historical datasets. His 2014 election comparison supplies a concrete test, with limits.

2015-06-02The Forecasting Machine

“Intelligence Is Collective”: Servan-Schreiber at the 2015 Santa Clara conference

A recovered Lumenogic poster and conference programme connect Émile Servan-Schreiber’s general account of intelligence with Hypermind’s election-forecasting research.

2015-05-31The Forecasting Machine

Crowdfunders and experts largely agreed on theatre projects — with different funding thresholds

A 2015 comment about art and expertise provides a starting point for comparing Kickstarter theatre funding with expert evaluations and later project outcomes.

2014-02-19The Forecasting Machine

Lumenogic-backed marketing research wins a track award in 2014

Two February 2014 announcements celebrated Lumenogic-backed research. The authors’ records establish the award’s scope, while their later journal paper documents a corporate forecasting tournament.

2013-10-18The Forecasting Machine

At École Militaire in 2013, forecasting becomes a question of collective intelligence

A contemporary account of Émile Servan-Schreiber’s October 2013 lecture connects prediction markets, dispersed knowledge and the measurement of geopolitical forecasting.