News from the frontier of AI forecasting
FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.
Results for “prediction markets”
Four lessons from 25 years of crowd forecasting: Servan-Schreiber at the Lürssen Foundation workshop
At a workshop convened by MIT’s Dražen Prelec in Rijeka on 1–2 October 2026, Émile Servan-Schreiber was scheduled to present four lessons on money, Brier scores, the Bayesian Truth Serum and AI forecasting.
Polls, Prediction Markets or AI? Servan-Schreiber and Verian’s Laure Salvaing on Reading France’s 2027 Election
In an Atlantico cross-interview, Émile Servan-Schreiber and pollster Laure Salvaing disagreed on what prediction markets measure and whether AI-simulated voters can replace real ones. A B SMART interview the same month added his view that, for forecasting at scale, AI has already won.
“Those markets are killed forever”: Servan-Schreiber on insider trading and the truth-machine problem
In an interview with Compliance+More on 15 September 2026, Émile Servan-Schreiber argued that suspected insider trading damages the product itself, not just compliance. It drives informed traders out of real-money prediction markets, and play money removes the incentive to rig outcomes.
Teaching students to forecast: Servan-Schreiber’s seminar at IE University and his class in the UM6P Executive MBA
A new run of “How to predict the future with collective and artificial intelligence” began at IE University on 14 September 2026, with students learning by forecasting in live prediction tournaments.
“Prediction People”: Servan-Schreiber on why money builds the business but not the forecast
In Stuart Crowley’s “Prediction People” interview, published on 24 August 2026, Émile Servan-Schreiber separated the forecasting mechanism from the business model. He also talked about forecasters who have kept playing for 25 years, AI competing with his own product, and why governments should use crowd forecasts.
A 2017 field guide to prediction markets for foresight, reread in 2026
Futuribles International has made Émile Servan-Schreiber’s 14-page toolbox on prediction markets free to download. Written in 2017 for foresight practitioners, its practical rules still hold, and its list of research frontiers reads differently now that AI forecasting exists.
