News from the frontier of AI forecasting

FORAXION, the company behind The Forecasting Machine, pushes the limits of actionable foresight.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

Will the USA Bomb Iranian Territory in June 2026? A Forecast at 50/50

The Forecasting Machine put the chance of a U.S. bombing operation on Iranian territory near even odds at the start of June, before new evidence sharply changed the assessment.

Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

When Will the USA Sustain a One-Month Ceasefire With Iran?

The Forecasting Machine initially made Q3 2026 the likeliest window for a full month without U.S. attacks on Iran, then revised the distribution as the ceasefire repeatedly came under pressure.

2026-06-21The Forecasting Machine

Will the US and Iran sign a definitive peace agreement in 2026? The machine said “maybe later”

Days after the June 2026 US–Iran memorandum, The Forecasting Machine put 61% on no definitive treaty before the end of 2026. Three months on, the talks have stalled and the forecast is still open.

2026-04-23The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s April 2026 Senate forecast: almost an even contest

On 23 April 2026, Hypermind’s market put Democratic control of the US Senate at 49.5%. Its House forecast looked very different.

2020-09-03The Forecasting Machine

The Long Fork Project: forecasting the consequences of America’s 2020 election

In 2020, Hypermind asked its champion forecasters what the United States would look like in 2022 and 2024 depending on whether Donald Trump won re-election. One of the questions, on national happiness, can now be checked against what happened.