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Forecasts

2026-07-15The Forecasting Machine

Will Russia Accept a Permanent Ukraine Ceasefire by the End of 2026?

The Forecasting Machine gives Russia only about a 7% chance of accepting a permanent ceasefire by the end of 2026 as active fighting and incompatible terms outweigh mounting pressure for a deal.

2026-07-03The Forecasting Machine

Zelensky’s resilience: two different generations of Hypermind leadership forecasts

A July 2026 market image puts Zelensky almost level with Putin on who loses power first, and ahead of Trump on staying longer. The 2022 baseline asked different questions.

2023-12-13The Forecasting Machine

Wagner, territory and presidential tenure: three Hypermind questions in 2023

At 09:20 GMT on 24 June 2023, Hypermind gave Putin a 60% chance of remaining president through year-end. A December update asked a different question about which wartime leader would lose power first.

2023-02-24The Forecasting Machine

Hypermind’s Ukraine war forecasts, 2022–2023: what the crowd got right and wrong

On the war’s first anniversary, Émile Servan-Schreiber published Hypermind’s forecasts for its second year. A look back at the crowd’s record since January 2022: an invasion it rated as possible but not likely, a serious early misjudgment about Zelensky, and a run of calls that held up.

2022-04-26The Forecasting Machine

Dissent and groupthink: a collective-intelligence reading of the Ukraine war

An April 2022 post used Russia’s failure to capture Kyiv to argue for dissent and error correction. The argument is useful, but its causal claims need limits.